Alex De Minaur vs Alexander Bublik Preview: Head-to-Head and Prediction for Paris Masters 2025
Sixth-seeded Alex De Minaur will take on 13th-seeded Alexander Bublik in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Paris Masters. De Minaur has been in excellent form this year, winning 55 of the 75 matches he has played. At the Paris Masters, he began with an opening-round bye, after which he won 7-6 (8), 4-6, 6-3 over Gabriel Diallo in the second round, and then followed it up with a 6-2, 6-2 victory over 10th-seeded and 2018 champion Karen Khachanov in the third round.
Meanwhile, Bublik has been in tearaway form in 2025, winning four titles this year and breaking through to the top 20 in the rankings. At the Paris Masters, he began his campaign with a 6-4, 6-3 win over Alexei Popyrin in the first round, after which he won 6-3, 7-5 over Corentin Moutet in the second round. In the third round, the Kazakh faced off against fourth-seeded Taylor Fritz, winning 7-6 (6), 6-2.
Alex De Minaur vs Alexander Bublik Details
Date: Oct. 31, 2025
Tournament: Paris Masters 2025
Round: Quarterfinals
Venue: Paris La Défense Arena, Paris, France
Category: Masters 1000
Surface: Indoor hard court
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
De Minaur vs Bublik Head-to-Head
After four meetings, De Minaur has a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head against Bublik, including one victory via retirement in their first encounter in Antalya in 2021. In their most recent match at the French Open this year, Bublik came from two sets down to earn his first win over the Australian, taking the match 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.
De Minaur vs Bublik Prediction
In his two matches in Paris so far, De Minaur has won 70% of his first-serve points, but the most critical part of his victories has been his 67% win rate behind the second serve. The Australian has benefited from the slower courts in Paris, which help him use his court speed in longer rallies, especially during break-point opportunities.
Meanwhile, Bublik has won 80% of his first-serve points in his three matches in Paris, but his second-serve win rate (50%) is behind De Minaur’s. The Kazakh has generated 25 break-point opportunities in those three matches but has converted just 28% of them.
More: Taylor Fritz’s Opponent Alexander Bublik Gets Honest on American ‘Not Being 100%’ During Paris Masters Loss
This year, De Minaur has a 42-13 win-loss record on hard courts, winning one title in Washington and finishing runner-up on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam. Meanwhile, Bublik has a 19-15 win-loss record on hard courts, winning the title at the Hangzhou Open and reaching the quarterfinals on indoor courts in Montpellier and Vienna.
De Minaur will have a slight edge in the upcoming match due to his favorable head-to-head record, but the last time they played on slower conditions, Bublik came out on top. The new courts will give the Kazakh more of a fighting chance, but the Australian should come through given his record on indoor hard courts this year.
Pick: De Minaur to win in three sets
