If Preseason is any indication of a team’s upcoming regular season, a concept Mat Issa recently explored for Opta Analyst USA, the Magic are as prepared as any.
In Orlando’s four tune-up games, the Magic blew the doors off the competition, posting the #1 Point Differential (+14 PTS), the #1 Offense (125 O-RTG), and the #10 Defense. (110 D-RTG), while leading the league in offensive rebounds, drawing fouls, and defensive shooting efficiency.
Miami, on the other hand, seemed to sleep through the alarm for their six exhibition games: losing every game, ranking dead last in Point Differential (-10 PTS) and Offense (102 O-RTG), yet still hanging around a smack dab league average rate in defense (112.2 D-RTG), showing a will to survive.
As Orlando and Miami kick off their 2025-26 NBA Regular Season with the Sunshine State Rivalry, let’s take a look at 3 keys to a #MagicWin in tonight’s season opener based on preseason matchups and predictive stats.
Feb 6, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) looks to pass the ball as Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) defends during the second half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
Coming off back-to-back seasons with the NBA’s 2nd-best defense, could the Magic’s preseason world-beating offense join their perennially petrifying defense?
In 2024-25, Orlando ranked 2nd in defense (110 D-RTG) by…
forcing 2nd-most turnovers (17% TOV%),
grabbing 4th-most rebounds (26% DREB%)
generating 11th-best defensive shooting efficiency (54% eFG%)
while keeping the offense alive by drawing fouls (2nd in FT Rate) and crashing the glass. (13th in OREB%)
finishing 41-41 with 15th-best Point Differential (+0.5 PTS)
In 2023-24, Orlando ranked 2nd in defense (112 D-RTG) by…
forcing 2nd-most turnovers (16% TOV%),
securing 2nd-most rebounds (25% DREB%),
generating 13th-best defensive shooting efficiency (55% eFG%)
while keeping the offense afloat by drawing fouls (4th in FT Rate) and crashing the glass (7th in OREB%)
finishing 47-35 with 14th-best Point Differential (+2.4 PTS)
This team built elite winning habits on defense, crashing the glass, forcing turnovers, and drawing fouls.
If a team elite in that many areas fills its gaps in 3pt shooting and converting at the rim to cover up its holes, that team might find ultimate two-way floor balance while seeing a drastic rise in point differential and wins.
With the #1 Point Differential, #1 Offense, and #10 Team 3P% over their four preseason games, maybe this Magic offense is finally pushing its limits.
Oct 23, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (22) and center Wendell Carter Jr. (34) battle for rebound position with Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) during the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
First and foremost, the Magic beat the Heat twice this preseason by winning the rebound battle and generating big margins in second chance points.
In both of Orlando preseason victories over Miami, the Magic scored 120+ points and outscored the Heat by 16 and 8 points, respectively.
In the first game, the Magic outrebounded the Heat by a whopping 21 boards for a +8 PT margin in second chance points.
In Round 2, Orlando secured 18 more rebounds leading to a ginormous +28 PT margin in second chance points.
When your frontcourt has an advantage between some combination of height, size, strength, timing, instincts, and rebounding feel, then creating second chance points off offensive rebounds become a vital strategy for easy points.
Putbacks become the name of the game.
Crashing the glass is not only vital to tonight’s season opener, but remains a core tenet of Orlando’s team identity for the past two seasons and going forward.
Orlando Magic Rebounding Percentage Rates by Season / MANDATORY CREDIT: Ryan Kaminski
Oct 12, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Kel’El Ware (7) shoots over Orlando Magic center/forward Wendell Carter Jr. (34) during the first half at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Kel’el Ware popped off for 24 PTS in the second preseason matchup.
A dynamic scorer, slowing down Ware is a worthy goal for the Magic’s defense after containing the more established scorers of Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo. (and Herro when healthy)
Jase Richardson scored 13 PTS in both preseason outings vs the Heat, shooting 5/8 3P (63% 3P%) and 4/15 2P. (27% 2P%)
Increasing playing time for Jase to see if he’s got amatchup advantage or the hot hand from deep could be worth exploring; throw Richardson in the fire on his first day as an NBA Rookie and see how he handles the heat of the big leagues.
Adding a third All-Star scorer with the shooting gravity of Desmond Bane, let alone the depth of Tyus Jones and Rookies Jase Richardson and Noah Penda, to a team annually rated 2nd-best in defense that’s already approaching 50 wins is just what the doctor ordered for this rising Magic squad.
