Tropical Storm Melissa: Follow the storm, possible impacts in Sarasota

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Cooler weather has finally arrived in Sarasota and Manatee counties — and this weekend’s forecast looks downright perfect, with warm sunshine by day and crisp nights in the upper 60s.
Yes, with the pretty much perfect weather — and plenty of activities happening this weekend, plus beloved Sarasota area places to visit before the tourists and snowbirds return — it’s easy to forget that our Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30.
In fact, Tropical Storm Melissa — which will remind many of the Allman Brothers Band song of the same name, sung and written by former Sarasota-Manatee resident Gregg Allman, with a sweet guitar solo by another local legend, Dickey Betts — was slowly churning in the Caribbean on Friday morning, Oct. 24.
Here are the latest updates on Tropical Storm Melissa from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Melissa located 953 miles southeast of Sarasota, Florida
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
- Location: 15.5N, 74.9W
- 953 miles southeast of Sarasota
- Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
- Present movement: Northwest at 5 mph
- Minimum central pressure: 1,003 millibars
Latest advisory from National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Melissa
At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph. A slow northwest or north motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is expected by late Friday and over the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1,003 mb.
The advisory warns of the following dangers:
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica earlier on Friday.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Sunday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents
Tropical Storm Melissa spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm Melissa: See projected path, storm tracker
Watches, warnings issued for Tropical Storm Melissa
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for: Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for: Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Watches and warnings issued for Florida
NWS radar for Sarasota, Florida
Helpful hurricane resources and links
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