Tropical Storm Melissa continues to slowly move northwest with sustained winds near 70 mph — just shy of becoming the fifth hurricane of this Atlantic season.
The storm was located about 165 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, as of Friday evening. Life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic and Jamaica through the weekend and into early next week.
Forecasters say wind shear around Melissa is expected to decrease on Saturday, creating conditions for significant strengthening over the weekend.
Melissa is expected to move slowly in the Caribbean Sea on Saturday into Sunday, allowing the storm to take advantage of very warm waters, as well as the decreased wind shear, and rapidly intensify into a major hurricane.
Hurricane conditions are expected in southern Haiti later Saturday, reaching Jamaica later in the day and continuing into Sunday morning.
By Sunday, Melissa is forecast to approach Jamaica as a major hurricane with winds exceeding 110 mph.
The storm will be near the island from Sunday through at least Tuesday, creating a multi-day event of heavy rains that could lead to catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, as well as extensive damage from damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge.
People abandon a car on an impassable street flooded by rains caused by Tropical Storm Melissa in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025.
Ricardo Hernandez/AP
This may also deal a heavy blow to the energy infrastructure in Jamaica, possibly leading to widespread and long durations of power outages.
This could be the strongest hurricane to impact Jamaica in more than 35 years when Gilbert, a Category 4 hurricane, hit the island nation in 1988. With this storm expected to move slower through Jamaica, as well as track at a more impactful angle from the south, Melissa has a chance to surpass the impacts seen from past hurricanes like Gilbert.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica, while hurricane watches remain in place for Haiti’s southwestern peninsula, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches are expected across portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible.
Elsewhere, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected across the rest of Haiti and into the southern Dominican Republic while significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are a possibility in all these areas through the weekend into early next week.
After moving north of Jamaica, Melissa is expected to cross southern Cuba and reach the central or southern Bahamas by Wednesday or Thursday before turning northwest toward the central Atlantic later next week.
