New report: UK’s net zero ambitions threatened by rising water scarcity for decarbonisation

A new report warns that regional water deficits by 2030 could jeopardise the UK’s 2050 net zero targets unless urgent, collaborative action is taken to manage water resources effectively.

The UK’s ambitious net zero targets, set for 2050, are facing a critical challenge that could imperil their realisation: escalating water scarcity. A recent report, commissioned by the national water retailer Wave in partnership with Durham University, reveals that the water demands of decarbonisation efforts—particularly in hydrogen production and carbon capture technology—could push several UK regions into significant water deficits as early as 2030.

The research focuses on the five largest industrial clusters in England—Humberside, North West England, Tees Valley, the Solent, and the Black Country—key hubs of industrial activity expected to spearhead low-carbon innovation. It meticulously quantifies the water volumes required to meet net zero commitments and evaluates whether regional water supplies can sustain such demands. The findings are sobering: by 2050, daily water requirements for decarbonisation activities may reach an additional 860 million litres, driven largely by the water-intensive processes of blue and green hydrogen production and CO2 capture.

Regions already vulnerable to water stress face the most acute risks. The East Anglian area, served by Anglian Water, is projected to experience a deficit of 130 million litres per day by 2050. Yorkshire Water’s region, also impacted by Humberside-related industrial activity, anticipates a less severe shortfall due to current water management strategies. Meanwhile, the North West industrial cluster is likely to register a deficit of approximately 70M litres daily by 2030, although United Utilities’ proactive plans could restore surplus conditions by 2045. In contrast, the areas managed by Northumbrian Water and Severn Trent appear better positioned with planned surpluses, suggesting a more manageable water demand balance relative to decarbonisation efforts.

The water industry’s alarm bells ring loudly in the wake of these projections. The Environment Agency estimates that the UK could face a national shortfall of nearly 5bn litres per day by 2055. Given the critical role that water plays not only in supporting everyday life but in enabling carbon-cutting technologies, this looming scarcity is a formidable obstacle to achieving decarbonisation at the necessary scale.

Wave’s report advocates for urgent, widescale collaboration across sectors. It urges decarbonisation project managers to engage with water companies early in the planning phases, embedding water resource considerations into project timelines and decision-making processes. This integrated approach aims to unlock better coordination and avoid misaligned developments that could exacerbate water stress.

Wave industrial and commercial customer director Nigel Corfield said: “Water is a resource that’s often taken for granted. We just expect it to be there. When it comes to some large-scale industrial decarbonisation projects, the availability of water may be the deciding factor in whether these projects can move forward or not.

“This report brings to light the stark truth: if we continue to use water the way we do now, there simply won’t be enough. We want water scarcity to be seen as a shared challenge.

“Water retailers, wholesalers, net zero project managers, and government need to work together from the outset, aligning plans and timelines with local water resources to minimise disruption. Without urgent action, the road to net zero could quite literally dry up.”

Technological innovation is also a crucial frontier. The report recommends pursuing advanced water-saving measures—including water recycling, enhanced cooling technologies, and sophisticated water treatment protocols—to reduce the specific water intensity of hydrogen production and carbon capture operations. Furthermore, it highlights the potential of establishing regional water hubs, where shared infrastructure enables more efficient use of freshwater resources and mitigates local pressures.

Rebalancing water availability across the country forms another pillar of the strategy. Where scarcity looms, water companies should consider reallocating supplies from regions expected to maintain surpluses, thereby evening out demand nationwide and securing resilience for decarbonisation projects reliant on stable water access.

Lastly, the document stresses the importance of adaptive management—ongoing, real-time monitoring of water demand linked to decarbonisation projects—to swiftly respond to unexpected shifts and ensure water resources remain aligned with dynamic industrial and technological developments.

This research shines a vital light on an often-overlooked nexus between water and climate policy, emphasising that sustainable net zero pathways demand integrated solutions that marry environmental stewardship with industrial ingenuity. Without decisive action to align water supply frameworks with the water-thirsty realities of decarbonisation, the UK risks not only drying up its water reserves but also stalling its green ambitions before the finish line.

For policymakers, businesses, and water companies alike, the message is unequivocal: net zero cannot be decoupled from water security. Collaborative, innovative, and forward-looking approaches are essential to ensure Britain’s environmental aspirations do not falter under the weight of an unseen but formidable scarcity crisis.

Simon Mathias, Professor at Durham University, said:

“Our analysis shows that decarbonisation efforts, associated with carbon capture and hydrogen production, could add up to 860M litres per day of water demand by 2050. In some regions, for example Anglian Water and United Utilities, deficits could emerge as early as 2030 unless proactive measures are taken.

“To ensure sustainable resource use, it’s vital that decarbonisation project managers work closely with water companies. Exploring innovative ways to reduce the water demand of decarbonisation technologies must be a priority. Regional desalination hubs and adaptive water management strategies should also be part of the conversation.”

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