One week ago, LSU traveled to Nashville, and the assumption was simple.
The Tigers had cleared their low-hanging fruit. The opponent? Vanderbilt. The expectation? A reset, a breather and a modest win before the real grind.
Instead, on Oct. 18, the scoreboard read 31-24 in favor of the Commodores, and what unfolded could mark the turning point for head coach Brian Kelly’s tenure at LSU.
The Tigers’ record slipped to 5-2 overall and 2-2 in conference play. Following the loss, they dropped to No. 20 in the AP poll on Monday.
This wasn’t just a setback. It was a signal: Vanderbilt, a program that hadn’t beaten LSU since 1990, now owns a victory over the Tigers. LSU now faces a stretch that only gets tougher, with No. 3 Texas A&M at home and Alabama on the road, both looming ahead.
Vanderbilt’s quarterback, Diego Pavia, threw for 160 yards and a touchdown, ran for 86 yards and scored two more times.
The Commodores held the ball for more than 36 of the 60 minutes played, and out-gained LSU 399 to 325 yards.
While the Tigers settled for a few goals, the Commodores punched in touchdowns.
“We had 49 offensive plays, and we needed to be better in scoring zones,” said Kelly. “Defensively, we needed to get off the field.”
It wasn’t just a missed opportunity; it’s been a pattern over the last seven weeks.
The defense allowed Vanderbilt to go 6/13 on third downs and 2/3 on fourth downs.
Often converting third and long, Pavia was a massive problem for an injury-ridden LSU defense.
For Kelly, whose arrival promised stability, the margin is vanishing. At this point, the Vanderbilt loss could be indicative of a declining program.
LSU had not lost to the Commodores in 35 years, but this Vanderbilt was a force to be reckoned with, and Pavia is rightfully in the Heisman conversation. Still, the standard at LSU does not falter, and Kelly’s hot seat may have gotten even hotter.
Though to many it might feel like several decades have passed since 2019, it’s been less than six years since the Tigers reached the pinnacle of college football with legendary head coach Ed Orgeron at the wheel.
Kelly’s performance has been rocky since the start, and it could be compared to that of Florida’s former head coach, Billy Napier, who was let go earlier this week.
Napier’s firing makes him the ninth FBS coach this season to have been let go since Week 1, following big names such as Penn State’s James Franklin. Many fans and alumni are calling for Kelly to be the 10th.
This begs the question: what happens if Kelly keeps losing?
According to Kelly’s contract, which athletic director Scott Woodward and Kelly inked in November 2021, should Kelly be fired at the end of this season, he will be owed more than $50 million.
That comes after Orgeron’s buyout finally ends this December, which was only around $17 million.
But, if Kelly can pull off a victory against the undefeated, No. 3 overall Aggies this week in Tiger Stadium, he could pour some water on that fire under his seat.
“[Our team is] going to play hard,” Kelly said. “We just have to play smarter and cleaner. I’m not worried about the guys not wanting to play at their very best.”
During his Monday press conference, he reassured the public that his Tigers are committed to winning and are mentally ready to play again this week.
“They’re still in it,” Kelly said. “They’ve got Texas A&M at home, but they’ve got to bounce back right to reality and know that they’ve got to play mistake-free against this outstanding A&M team.”
The Tigers are 5-2, and should they run the table, they’ll have a good chance of making the college football playoff. Lose, and that fire may turn into an inferno.
Texas A&M has not beaten LSU in Tiger Stadium since 1994. This week will change that, but only time will tell as the Aggies and Tigers kick off this Saturday night in Death Valley.
