While prediction market specialist Kalshi is standing its ground in the US courts, being the main protagonist in the federal versus state gambling legislation row, Polymarket is beginning to feel the global pinch of resistance.
Already geo-blocked from major markets such as the UK, France and Australia, the latest country to put the globally operating crypto platform on its blacklist is Romania, after revealing the company had traded in excess of $600 million in transactions made during the country’s elections in May.
Romania’s National Office for Gambling (ONJN) released a statement on its LinkedIn page saying unequivocally that Polymarket is in effect a gambling platform and as such is unlicensed and operating outside the country’s legal framework.
Are Prediction Markets The Same As Gambling?
The running battle in the US courts revolves around one basic question: Are prediction markets the same as gambling?
All we know at this stage is that predicting the prediction markets in the US and what happens next is not going to be resolved overnight.
Financial trading platforms that offer event contracts fall under the federal jurisdiction of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and up until the turn of this year the gambling industry seemed fairly comfortable with that idea, with trades being offered on political outcomes and centred around the world of entertainment.
That all changed when prediction market Kalshi entered the sports arena in late January.
The event-based contracts firm, established in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, began to field objections from state legislators who argued that sports event contracts were tantamount to sports betting and should therefore fall under much stricter state governance, and be liable to state gambling tax duties.
In March, the Nevada Gaming Control Board became the first state regulator to fire a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi and others soon joined the fight, with suits landing from the likes of New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Maryland.
Kalshi has continued to operate freely in the US while most of the pending cases brought against it are under some form of review.
More than that, it has now rolled out to 140 countries worldwide after recently securing $300 million from a funding round.
While sports betting companies are generally keeping prediction markets at arm’s length, with only DraftKings and FanDuel among the major players who appear to be making any kind of move, there has been a show of support from the National Hockey League.
Last month, the NHL ignored the prediction market row to partner with both Kalshi and Polymarket in a landmark, multi-year deal.
Where Does Polymarket Stand?
Polymarket had been able to watch this all unfold from the touchline, as it was banned in the US in 2022, but has continued to operate offshore with a worldwide audience.
The global crypto-powered financial exchange is now preparing to return to the US after settling its differences with the CFTC and in July it acquired QCEX for $112 million, a derivatives exchange that is already licensed through the CFTC.
Polymarket is expected to start operations in the US before the turn of the year and last month gained substantial financial backing from Intercontinental Exchange.
The New York Stock Exchange’s owner has said it will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket’s future, boosting the prediction market platform’s value up to around $8 billion.
A whale drops $1 million on Polymarket on the NYC mayoral election. Image: @Polymarket on X
Sports betting companies on the whole have sided with their state legislators with BetMGM and Caesars being the latest to reveal their thoughts on emerging sports prediction markets.
A return to the US seemed not only inevitable for Polymarket, but it is also potentially vital as the firm is battling with a global marketplace that is increasingly of the opinion that sports event-based contracts are gambling by another name.
In November last year, Polymarket was blocked from both France and Switzerland and at the start of 2025 that list grew with authorities in Poland, Singapore, Thailand and Belgium imposing bans.
In August the platform was named among sites blocked by the Australian Communications and Media Authority.
Romania’s Ruling Against Polymarket
The ONJN disputes the assertion that Polymarket is an event trading platform or a prediction market, stating in its ruling that “legally and functionally it meets all the criteria of a counterparty bet.”
Its statement goes on to explain: “Accepting the idea that a “counterparty betting” system can be referred to as “trading” would set a dangerous precedent, whereby any operator could “reinterpret” counterparty betting as a stock exchange activity – circumventing strict gambling or capital markets regulations.
“It is also worrying that while there are people who publicly call for a ban on gambling, the Polymarket platform is socially accepted as a “smart” betting alternative, without realizing that we are talking about an unlicensed platform, operating outside the legal framework.”
President of the ONJN, Mr. Vlad-Cristian Soare, said: “The decision to include Polymarket on the blacklist is not related to technology, but to the law.
“Whether you bet in lei or crypto, if you bet money on a future outcome, under the conditions of a counterparty bet, we are talking about gambling that must be licensed.
“The ONJN will not allow the blockchain to be turned into a screen for illegal gambling.”
