Game 3 of the World Series was a challenge to everyone’s bedtimes and a test of their desire to stay up to watch the end of a baseball game. Game 4 features Shohei Ohtani on the mound, which means we could be in line for another historic baseball performance.
Is it overkill to be talking about a historic performance before the game starts? Yes, probably, but the last time Ohtani took the mound, it was arguably the best single-game performance in the history of baseball. The last time he played, in Game 3, Ohtani reached base nine times. He was 4-for-4 with two home runs, two doubles and five walks. Four of the walks were intentional, and the fifth one was mostly intentional (who would want to pitch to this guy right now?).
So, yes, Ohtani is currently setting the bar at historic levels.
The result of Monday’s 18-inning marathon is a 2-1 series lead for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are an overwhelming favorite at -500 to win the World Series on BetMGM. With Ohtani starting against Shane Bieber, the Dodgers are also a clear favorite to win Tuesday’s Game 4 with -220 odds.
Individually, Ohtani’s dominance has made him the clear favorite to win World Series MVP at -400. If the Dodgers win the World Series, which is far from a certainty but it’s hard to pick against them now, it seems like a virtual lock that Ohtani would win MVP. Even though Freddie Freeman had the walk-off home run in Game 3, Ohtani is still the talk of the sport.
If Ohtani gets shelled in Game 4 or if Freeman has another clutch hit or two, maybe there’s an opening for someone else. Freeman is the next Dodger at +1400.
If Toronto comes back to win the series, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently the top contender to win World Series MVP at +1000. The 26-year-old is 5-for-15 with three walks so far in the World Series and is on fire in the playoffs with a .414 batting average and six home runs.
For now, though, it seems like it’s all Ohtani’s world.
A look at the Game 4 prop lines reflects this as well. Ohtani has the shortest odds to hit a home run at +220. That gives him a better than 30 percent chance of hitting a home run. On one hand, how could you bet against this guy right now? On the other, how could you pitch to him? Toronto walked him his last five plate appearances in Game 3, and it seems plausible they will continue to walk him whenever they can.
While Ohtani may not have a lot of pitches to work with as a hitter on Tuesday and potentially for the rest of the series, Ohtani has full control on the mound. His pitching props for Game 4 are predicting a strong performance.
Ohtani’s strikeout total is listed at 6.5, which is a number he has cleared in each of his last three starts (with 10 strikeouts, nine and eight in those starts). His outs total is listed at 18.5, which is a tricky number to clear. Ohtani has pitched exactly six innings each in his last three starts, but the Dodgers’ bullpen was stretched to its limit in Game 3. The further Ohtani can go into this game, the better. The under is favored at -185 because going into the seventh is increasingly rare in modern playoff baseball, but the scenario is there for Ohtani to go further if he’s going well.
For all we know, Ohtani could end up getting shelled, but the Japanese superstar is in position to do things we haven’t seen in a World Series in decades.
