Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns prediction, pick for CFB Week 9 on Saturday 10/25/25

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 9’s game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Texas Longhorns.

Starkville inhales and rattles, and the sound sharpens nerves before the first snap. Cowbells don’t just clang; they vibrate through helmets and ribcages and decisions. That din sits center stage in this matchup’s psychology, and it matters when a young offense tries to sort protections and hot routes. The “cowbell” motif lives in the broader culture for a reason, and that resonance filters into Davis Wade’s soundtrack. The stage invites noise, memory, and pressure, and pressure tends to tax processing speed. That matters most for Arch Manning, quarterback, as he tries to reset a shaky road rhythm. The stakes hum because Texas still chases an SEC berth while Mississippi State still chases a cathartic conference breakthrough. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 9’s Saturday football game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Texas Longhorns.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Texas travels with a defense that crackles like a live wire. The Longhorns allow 11.3 points per game and squeeze opponents to 279.7 yards. They weld the run front and sit at 83.3 rushing yards allowed per game, so gaps rarely stay open. Their pass defense allows 196.4 yards per game and tightens at critical junctures. They convert that discipline into takeaways and carry a +7 turnover margin. That profile has bailed out a choppy offense in multiple road tests. It must do so again because the Davis Wade soundtrack tests cadence and clarity.

Mississippi State fights with balance and pace and a willingness to bruise. The Bulldogs score 31.9 points per game and stack 405.9 yards per game with real intent. Blake Shapen, quarterback, completes 66.7% and has thrown for 1,528 yards with nine touchdowns. He threw 324 last week and still felt the pinch of a late interception that stung. The run room supports him with Da’Marion Bothwell, running back, at 465 yards and six touchdowns and Davon Booth, running back, at 370 yards and 6 more. That downhill complement forces safeties to buzz downhill before the shots arrive. The explosives then land to Brenen Thompson, wide receiver, who sits at 533 yards with four touchdowns and stretches leverage every series.

Texas needs a calmer canvas on offense. The Longhorns average 26.7 points and 368.1 yards per game and keep searching for rhythm. Arch Manning sits at 1,449 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions at 60.3%. He adds 193 rushing yards with 5 rushing scores, yet the passing game misfires on important downs. Texas ranks 38.1% on third down and has sputtered late, ranking 116th in late-down success by the sheet you sent. That drag shows in available yards at 105th and in EPA/pass at 110th. Those markers tell a story of promising scripts that cough in the red haze of crowd and pressure.

Mississippi State brings opportunism and bite. The Bulldogs carry a +5 turnover margin and rank among interception leaders with 10, and they have at least one pick in seven straight according to your notes. Their defense concedes 351.3 yards per game and just 20.3 points per game, which keeps every game tight. They allow 187.3 passing yards per game, which pairs nicely with that ball-hawking posture. Their flaw sits on the ground where they allow 164 rushing yards per game and a poor success rate by your chart. Yet they limit explosives and force offenses to stack methodical drives. In tense environments, methodical drives wobble when a single penalty or drop lands.

Let’s talk recent form because cadence matters. Texas escaped Lexington with 179 total yards and a 16-13 overtime win. The Longhorns went 5-for-16 on third down and produced only eight first downs while getting outgained by 216. Mississippi State lost 23-21 at Florida while outgaining the Gators 468-452. The Bulldogs went 8-for-15 on third down and drove to the Florida 29 before that interception ended it. Over the last three Texas games, you logged 32 possessions and only five touchdown drives without counting kneel-downs. Mississippi State’s offense remains streaky yet dangerous, and it already stacked 155 receiving yards for Thompson in Gainesville. Those swings create a tense scoreboard profile with field position and patience deciding outcomes late.

Texas vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet

Mississippi State’s vertical teeth can puncture even a sturdy shell, and Texas arrives lighter at the back with safety Michael Taaffe out. Mississippi State leads the nation with 14 completions of 40+ yards by your sheet, and those haymakers flip scripts in one breath. Quarterback Arch Manning completed 12 of 27 for 132 yards at Kentucky and missed wide receiver Parker Livingstone on three targets, which turns second-and-manageable into third-and-long and invites that Davis Wade roar to rattle timing. If quarterback Blake Shapen stacks two explosives and the Bulldogs protect the ball, the night tilts. That case hums until you weigh Texas’ structural ballast and how it grinds games flat over four quarters.

Texas’ run front erases Plan A, and that changes Mississippi State’s menu by the third quarter. The Bulldogs average just 27:11 in time of possession and live on tempos and strikes, but that rhythm collides with a defense allowing 31.4% on third down and choking space in the red area. Texas has allowed three passing touchdowns all season, and all three came on the road, which sets a real ceiling. The Bulldogs can pierce a drive or two, but sustaining 10-play marches against this front taxes protection, patience, and field position. That attrition nudges the closing stretch toward punts, field goals, and breath-held possessions—exactly the terrain where a full touchdown plus the hook carries premium value.

The market context echoes the lean. Texas sits 2-7 against the spread over nine and looks clunky on schedule and late downs, while Mississippi State rolls in 7-1 against the spread with a 5-1 home pulse. The Bulldogs run nearly 3% more than expected and rate 22nd in EPA/rush with the highest success rate in the country on your sheet, which bleeds snap count even when drives stall. That ground efficiency, paired with vertical menace, keeps the game inside one score even if the Longhorns’ front dictates tempo. The math still respects a low total, but the cleaner angle for portfolio balance lives on the number. Take the points, trust the cowbell chaos to steal a possession, and let Texas’ offensive inconsistency keep the door ajar.

We’re thus grabbing the points with State. Final score projection: Texas 23, Mississippi State 20.

Best bet: Mississippi State +7.5 (-115) vs. Texas

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