Ricky Simón and Raoni Barcelos will meet on the main card of UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The bantamweight bout presents a stylistic matchup between two veteran 135-pound competitors looking to climb the divisional rankings.
UFC Vegas 111 Betting Preview: Ricky Simón vs. Raoni Barcelos
Simón enters the contest as the betting favorite across most sportsbooks. Some sites list the American mixed martial artist at -155, making him a moderate favorite, while Barcelos sits at +130 on the underdog side. Line movement has remained relatively stable heading into fight week, with Simón’s odds fluctuating between -155 and -180 across various books, while Barcelos has ranged from +125 to +150. The implied probability without the vigorish favors Simón at 58.3 percent compared to Barcelos at 41.7 percent. Play more numbers with free credit casino.
The matchup is currently listed at 2.5 rounds, with the under priced between -225 and -250 depending on the sportsbook. This suggests bettors expect the fight to conclude before the third round concludes.
Simón’s recent trajectory supports his favorite status. The Washington-based fighter earned a first-round knockout victory over Javid Basharat in February 2025, earning a Performance of the Night bonus, before returning to form with a unanimous decision over Cameron Smotherman in June. The 32-year-old stands 22-6-0 in his professional record and boasts impressive grappling credentials, averaging 5.01 takedowns every 15 minutes with a 43 percent completion rate.
Barcelos, however, enters the matchup in exceptional form. Most recently, the MMA athlete defeated former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt via unanimous decision in June, and prior to that earned consecutive wins over rising prospect Payton Talbott and Cristian Quiñonez, with the latter coming by submission. Barcelos maintains a 20-5-0 professional record.
Simón is a wrestling-heavy fighter who attempts to control fights through grappling, landing 2.93 significant strikes per minute with 44 percent accuracy. Barcelos, conversely, is a much more prolific striker, averaging 4.87 significant strikes per minute with 52 percent accuracy. Crucially, Barcelos possesses an 85 percent takedown defense rate.
The Brazilian holds a one-inch height advantage at 5’7″ compared to Simón’s 5’6″, though Simón counters with a two-inch reach advantage at 69 inches versus Barcelos’ 67 inches. Both fighters maintain orthodox stances and compete at an identical 135-pound weight class.
Simón’s current form following back-to-back wins positions him as the tactically favored competitor for control-based fighting, while Barcelos’ superior output volume and defensive wrestling make him dangerous if the contest remains standing.
