According to an NRF survey, 79% of shoppers expect to pay more this year due to tariffs. Last year’s Halloween spending hit $11.6 billion, but this year, total spending is forecast to surpass $13 billion.
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If you think ghosts and goblins aren’t the scariest things this Halloween season, the face of a supply chain manager reading about volatile tariffs and a government shutdown before their morning coffee surely is. In 2025, the stakes are higher than ever.
This year’s Halloween, consumers are expected to spend a record $114.45 each, which is mostly caused by tariff-driven cost increases. Although tariffs peaked at 145% and were subsequently scaled back to around 30%, their lingering effects are still evident. Many importers halted production orders in April, deciding that the rising costs of bringing products into the U.S. during this critical season were simply too steep.
Halloween spending jumps nearly 13% to a record $13.1 billion
According to an NRF survey, 79% of shoppers expect to pay more this year due to tariffs. Last year’s Halloween spending hit $11.6 billion, but this year, total spending is forecast to surpass $13 billion.
Especially when considering that 90% of Halloween costumes, decorations, and accessories contain at least one component made overseas, most commonly in China, retailers must navigate complex supply chains and potential delays to meet the sudden surge in demand for trending items.
Investing in new products has become more uncertain for businesses, yet failing to invest in trending viral products carries similar risks. As shifting consumer demand driven by viral social media trends is now a given, retailers face pressure to keep up. Take the Addams Family craze as an example for this year. Many kids will be all “goo goo muck” over Wednesday Addams costumes this Halloween, rather than last year’s Barbie or Harley Queen. Will stores have enough Wednesday costumes and decorations to meet demand, or will they be relying on the costumes they have in stock from last year?
Discover in this IDC Analyst Brief what drives supply chain software choices beyond today’s needs and why preparing for the future is more crucial than you think: AI-Powered Suite for Supply Chain Management
Adding to the complexity is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. While Customs and Border Protection officers remain on duty, thousands of support staff are laid off, which slows down documentation and inspections. During the 2018-19 shutdown, shipment dwell times at the Port of Los Angeles-Long Beach increased 15-20%, for example. Unpaid federal employees may further delay processing, resulting in ripple effects that extend through truck, rail, and air cargo networks. Talk about a logistical nightmare!
The strict delivery standards from retailers increase cost pressures on logistics providers caught in the middle. These delays slow customs processing, causing shipment backlogs at key ports and forcing expensive emergency reroutes and freight surcharges.
You can run, but you can’t hide
Companies with geopolitical muscle must be prepared to manage political and trade challenges. They must thoroughly evaluate how rising tariffs may impact every stage of their operations, from product design to final delivery. In the era of predicting the unpredictable, no company can function effectively on its own.
Collaboration with strategic partners and agile response to the rapidly changing conditions are key to achieving such resilience. Integrating business networks that link suppliers, logistics providers, and warehouses enables the sharing of real-time data on tariffs, inventory, and shipments. By achieving this visibility, companies can reroute orders, adjust stock levels, and update pricing before costly delays or surprises reach customers.
If a Halloween merch retailer is facing tariff pressures and logistics bottlenecks, they can leverage collaboration tools that connect their overseas suppliers, third-party logistics partners, and distribution centers across the country. They can then shift sourcing from certain suppliers or reroute shipments through alternative ports when tariffs spike unexpectedly or port congestion threatens delays.
To navigate these complexities, companies are leveraging advanced analytics and digital tools to maintain real-time visibility, accurately forecast impacts, and pivot decisively. They integrate AI-driven demand planning with the live data on tariff changes, potential government shutdowns, freight rates, and currency fluctuations to generate more precise forecasts. Imagine a seasonal decoration manufacturer utilizes AI to predict the impact of new tariffs on components from a specific country on demand and adjusts its production schedules accordingly.
This flexibility enables them to minimize product shortages, reduce cancellations, and improve overall availability despite ongoing external shocks.
Shipping delays, carbon decays, and ethical ways
Delays in supply chains not only harm finances but also have a significant impact on sustainability. Recent tariffs and government shutdowns worsen bottlenecks at customs, stretching clearance times. Imagine the possible waste of perishable treats or decorations that might be left stalled. Then, companies have to find ways to maintain their shelves and might turn to expedited freight or alternative, less environmentally friendly shipping methods, causing their carbon footprints to increase.
At the same time, regulatory pressures are increasing. The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requires importers to pay carbon taxes on emissions embedded in their imported goods, which is expected to be fully operational next year.
Also, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) already mandates large companies to disclose detailed environmental impact data across their supply chains. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the current administration has proposed significant rollbacks and repeals of several greenhouse gas emissions standards. It doesn’t seem like regulations will ease up; they’ll only tighten incrementally.
Companies that can automate the tracking of tariff changes and monitor compliance with evolving import regulations will be key to adapting to new sustainability standards. By embedding sustainability and regulatory compliance into digital supply chain workflows, businesses can monitor compliance with evolving trade and environmental regulations.
I was “today years old” when I learn that Kinder Surprise eggs, which are popular in Europe, are banned in the U.S. because young children might swallow the toys inside. Or Red 40, which is in so many products in the U.S., is banned in some EU countries.
Imagine sourcing Halloween-themed brownies or pumpkin pies from Europe, decorative nuts from Asia, and costumes from China. All must navigate U.S. import tariffs on each product, evolving EU import standards on food, and tightened pesticide regulations in Asian countries on nuts.
The good news is that ERP can help companies with compliance through complex processes, allowing businesses to meet stricter regulations while reducing emissions and waste. Companies can track and update standards for food safety, traceability, and labeling requirements, as well as compliance with destination country regulations. They can monitor data on tariffs, duties, taxes, and transportation costs, and achieve real-time visibility into real product costs.
And with Halloween right around the corner, supply chains can breathe a little easier knowing their ERP is helping them cut through the red tape and focus more on keeping shelves stocked, customers happy, and their supply chain running smoothly.
Discover in this IDC Analyst Brief what drives supply chain software choices beyond today’s needs and why preparing for the future is more crucial than you think: AI-Powered Suite for Supply Chain Management
