The Edmonton Oilers are 4-4-1 through their first nine games, which puts them in the middle of the pack in the Pacific Division. That’s not panic-inducing on its own—it’s early, there’s time to figure things out, and the season is long. But here’s what should concern anyone paying attention: the Oilers are already struggling against the teams they’ll be battling all season long for playoff positioning.
Games within the division matter more than any other matchups on the schedule. They’re tiebreakers when playoff seeding gets decided in April, and the Oilers learned this lesson the hard way last season when they had to fight for every playoff position despite having two of the best players in the world. Dropping points to Pacific opponents early makes that climb steeper.
The opening night loss to Calgary set the tone. The Flames aren’t supposed to be a problem for Edmonton. They’re rebuilding, retooling, figuring out their identity. The Oilers should handle that matchup at home without much drama. Instead, they dropped two points to a conference rival in a building where they’re supposed to be dominant. That’s not just two points lost—it’s two points Calgary gained in the standings race.
The pattern extends beyond just Calgary. The Pacific is competitive this season in ways it wasn’t always in recent years. Vegas remains strong. Vancouver is a legitimate playoff team. Los Angeles has the pieces to compete. Seattle is better than their record suggests. Every game against these teams is a battle, and the Oilers aren’t winning enough of those battles right now.
What makes this particularly concerning is that the Oilers’ overall record isn’t terrible. They’re picking up points against non-conference opponents. They’re finding ways to win games they probably shouldn’t. But when they face Pacific teams—the ones they’ll see multiple times throughout the season, the ones they might face in the first round of the playoffs—they’re not getting the results they need.
The schedule doesn’t get easier. The Oilers play their Pacific opponents multiple times each season. Every loss now means having to make up those points later when fatigue sets in, injuries pile up, and the grind of the schedule takes its toll. It’s exponentially harder to claw back points against conference rivals in March than it is to bank them in October.
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There’s also the mental component. Pacific rivals pay attention to these early-season matchups. When Calgary beats Edmonton at Rogers Place on opening night, they walk away believing they can compete with the Oilers. When Vancouver or Seattle or Los Angeles get wins against Edmonton, they gain confidence and momentum. The Oilers are inadvertently building up their conference opponents by giving away points early.
The other reality is playoff seeding. The Pacific will send likely three or four teams to the playoffs. Home ice advantage in the first round could come down to a handful of points. The difference between second seed and third seed might be the difference between facing a wild card team and facing a rival you’ve struggled against all season. Every loss within the Pacific now could have playoff implications later.
The Oilers have the talent to dominate their conference. McDavid and Draisaitl are the two best forwards in the Pacific. The supporting cast is strong enough to compete with anyone. The defense, when playing structured hockey, is capable. But talent alone doesn’t win these crucial matchups—execution does. And right now, the Oilers aren’t executing when it matters most.
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Part of the problem is the same issue that’s plagued them all season: inconsistent effort and structure. The Oilers play down to opponents, try to be too cute with the puck, and lose their defensive discipline. That might work against teams you only see twice a season. It doesn’t work against conference rivals who know your tendencies and exploit your weaknesses.
The schedule offers both challenge and opportunity. The Oilers will have multiple chances to correct this trend. They’ll face these Pacific opponents again and again throughout the season. But every loss makes the hole deeper. Every point given away to Calgary, Vancouver, Seattle, Vegas, or Los Angeles is a point they’ll need to make up somewhere else.
The Oilers can’t afford to keep treating these games like they’re just another two points. They matter more. They count more. They determine playoff seeding, home ice advantage, and potentially first-round matchups. Dropping these games early doesn’t just hurt the standings—it sets a pattern that’s hard to break.
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Edmonton made the Stanley Cup Final last season despite struggling against Pacific opponents at times. They had to fight through tougher matchups because they didn’t bank enough points against conference rivals during the regular season. They’re on track to repeat that same mistake this year if something doesn’t change.
The Pacific Division isn’t the toughest in the NHL, but it’s competitive enough that you can’t give away points and expect to coast into a favorable playoff position. The Oilers need to start treating these games with the urgency they deserve. Bank points now against Calgary, Vancouver, Seattle, Vegas, and Los Angeles. Make life easier in March and April. Secure home ice advantage for the playoffs.
The talent is there. The opportunity is there. What’s missing is the consistent execution and urgency needed to dominate within the conference. The Oilers’ Pacific problem is already showing up in October. If they don’t fix it soon, it’ll still be showing up in April when playoff seeding is decided and they’re left wondering why they didn’t take care of business when it mattered.
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