- Wondering if Rivian Automotive’s current stock price lines up with its true value? You’re not the only investor taking a closer look right now.
- The stock has seen some wild swings recently, jumping 18.0% over the last year but dipping 8.4% in the past month, keeping both optimists and skeptics on their toes.
- Much of this volatility has been shaped by news about the company’s partnerships and evolving strategy in the electric vehicle space. Updates on its production targets and announcements about agreements with major industry players have fueled fresh debates about the company’s future potential and risk profile.
- When it comes to valuation metrics, Rivian scores just 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks, which suggests caution may be warranted. Next, we’ll unpack what’s behind that score by breaking down key valuation approaches. Later in the article, we’ll reveal an even better lens for understanding Rivian’s real worth.
Rivian Automotive scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Rivian Automotive Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This helps investors gauge what a business might really be worth, beyond current market mood swings.
For Rivian Automotive, the DCF model uses forecasts based on both analyst predictions and longer-term extrapolations. Currently, Rivian’s Free Cash Flow stands at negative $1.2 Billion, reflecting ongoing heavy investment and development typical for a growing electric vehicle maker. Looking ahead, analysts expect a significant turnaround. By 2029, projected Free Cash Flow is $961 Million, with even larger figures forecast through 2035 as the business matures and scales.
According to this approach, the estimated intrinsic value for Rivian’s stock is $14.94 per share. Given where the stock trades today, this implies the shares are roughly 16.3% undervalued based on discounted cash flows.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Rivian Automotive is undervalued by 16.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 844 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
RIVN Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Rivian Automotive.
Approach 2: Rivian Automotive Price vs Sales
The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often used to value companies like Rivian Automotive that are still building toward profitability but show growing revenues. Since Rivian is not yet posting consistent profits, sales-based multiples give investors another lens into how the market is valuing its potential versus realized performance.
A company’s “normal” or “fair” P/S ratio depends on several factors, including its expected revenue growth, risk profile, and how fast its industry is expanding. Higher growth and lower risk typically justify higher multiples, while slower growers or riskier ventures deserve a discount compared to peers.
Rivian Automotive is currently trading at a P/S ratio of 2.94x. This sits notably above the auto industry average of 1.13x and also tops the peer group’s average at 1.51x. At first glance, this might suggest Rivian is valued at a premium compared to other automakers.
However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Rivian comes in at 1.35x. This metric is designed to offer a more tailored benchmark by factoring in Rivian’s growth forecasts, risk profile, profit margins, industry, and market capitalization, rather than just relying on broad industry or peer averages. It is a more nuanced indicator of where the multiple should be, given the company’s real prospects and unique situation.
Comparing the current P/S ratio of 2.94x to the Fair Ratio of 1.35x indicates Rivian stock is trading above what would typically be justified by its fundamentals and forward outlook. It may be priced for a very optimistic future.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:RIVN PS Ratio as at Nov 2025
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Rivian Automotive Narrative
Earlier, we mentioned there’s an even better way to understand a company’s fair value, so let’s introduce you to Narratives.
Narratives are an intuitive tool that lets you attach your personal story or viewpoint to the numbers. By combining your assumptions about Rivian Automotive’s future revenue, earnings, and margins into a single projection, you can shape what you believe the stock is really worth.
Instead of seeing valuation as a fixed number, Narratives connect your outlook on the electric vehicle industry, Rivian’s competitive position, or upcoming product launches directly to a live financial forecast and a resulting fair value.
On Simply Wall St’s platform, Narratives are available to everyone in the Community page and are used by millions of investors to help decide when to buy or sell. Whenever your viewed fair value (based on your Narrative) differs from the latest share price, you have a clear way to act.
Best of all, Narratives automatically update when new news, forecasts, or company results are released, helping your investment thesis stay relevant and responsive.
For example, some investors viewing Rivian’s cost-saving moves and new partnerships choose a bullish Narrative with a fair value above $21. Others, concerned about profitability and competition, maintain a much more cautious Narrative closer to $7.55, providing a range of perspectives to compare alongside your own.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Rivian Automotive? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:RIVN Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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