Exhale. After several emotional comeback victories, while staring defeat dead in the face in a handful of scenarios, BYU is 8-0. And now they get a bye week.
Yes, the Cougars are technically perfect after winning their 10th game in a row, dating back to last year’s Houston game and are now 5-0 in Big 12 play.
Obviously, if they stay unblemished, they will hit cruise control to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game, which is at AT&T Stadium (A.K.A. Jerry World). However, we know better than to assume anything as a sure thing in the Big 12, America’s most chaotic conference.
Per ESPN, only Cincinnati has a tougher remaining strength of schedule among Big 12 teams than BYU. That is ironic, since BYU plays on the road at Cincy in a few weeks. The road only gets tougher. Texas Tech will be the fourth straight opponent for BYU that was tougher than the week prior, dating back to the Arizona game. It’s also in Lubbock, which is not a warm, fuzzy place for opponents. The Red Raiders are 10-2 at home since the beginning of last season.
Still, BYU completely controls its own destiny in regards to their ticket to the Big 12 title game. It would be BYU’s first conference championship game of any kind since the 1998 squad, who lost to Air Force in the WAC title match.
Some attrition ahead is likely, given the nature of football and especially in the Big 12. What are the scenarios that would earn BYU a trip to Jerry World to play for a Big 12 championship?
Yeah, duh. If BYU is 12-0, including 9-0 in the Big 12, not only will they waltz to Arlington, but they should be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the result of the actual game in Arlington.
Scenario #2: lose to Texas Tech, beat Cincinnati, finish 11-1
Beating the only other unblemished Big 12 team has them in the pile of one-loss teams with Cincy, Texas Tech, and Houston in this scenario (assuming everyone else wins out as well). They would own the tiebreaker over Cincinnati by virtue of head-to-head. However, Texas Tech would say the same about BYU.
If Houston drops a game (they have an easier remaining strength of schedule than any other of these teams), BYU will take that second slot ahead of Cincinnati to play Texas Tech in Arlington.
Scenario #3: lose to Texas Tech, beat Cincinnati, TT, Cincy, Houston, and BYU all finish 11-1
This is very similar to situation No. 2. However, Houston enters the mix with the exact same record, with a loss to Texas Tech, just like BYU. Now we have something of a three-way tie between Cincinnati, Houston, and BYU to see who plays Texas Tech in Arlington. Cincinnati doesn’t play Houston but lost to BYU in this situation. Houston doesn’t play BYU or Cincinnati, but already has lost to Texas Tech. Texas Tech owns the head-to-head advantage over BYU and Houston. BYU would still get that second slot in Arlington by virtue of their win over Cincinnati and their conference opponents having a better collective record than those on Houston’s schedule.
Scenario #4: beat Texas Tech, lose to Cincinnati, finish 11-1 with Houston
Beating Texas Tech opens up a whole new scenario where they would own the tiebreaker over the Red Raiders as well as have a two-game cushion on them. This basically would ensure they make it to Arlington minus an unexpected slip-up late in November, since they would win the tiebreaker over Houston,
Scenario #5: lose to both Texas Tech and Cincinnati, finish 10-2
Obviously, this isn’t ideal. BYU loses control of their own destiny with two conference losses. This allows Houston, Texas Tech, and Cincy to pass BYU with one loss or less. That means Cincinnati has a full two games on BYU and Texas Tech owns the tiebreaker as well. It would take a massive collapse by one of them, most likely Texas Tech, for BYU to make it to Arlington in this scenario.
Scenario #6: beat Texas Tech, lose to Cincinnati, lose to TCU, finish 10-2
This certainly would be a bummer, since beating Texas Tech would feel like a springboard to a special season. This would be a massive letdown. Still, owning the tiebreaker over the Red Raiders here would be key, since both would have two conference losses. This likely still gets BYU in the conference title game.
Obviously, the easiest way to Arlington is for BYU to just continue winning and go 12-0. However, the reality is, that rarely happens. This conference has so much parity. Several teams are jammed at the top and, for the most part, they all play each other.
Losing to both Texas Tech and Cincinnati would likely end any hope of a Big 12 title game for BYU. However, if they can find a way to split those tough road games and finish 11-1, they are very likely headed to Jerry World.
The key is to gain a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over at least one of Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Things are getting crowded atop the Big 12.
