Let’s make this as clear as possible.
No matter how many lists of trade candidates he ends up on, speculative stories about best fits where he lands as the primary photo or shouting shows where they scream about how the 49ers must go get an edge rusher, the reality of the situation will not change.
The Cincinnati Bengals are not trading Trey Hendrickson. Full stop.
Normally, this would be the part of the story where I draw you in to keep reading all the nuance, reporting and research I have to back up my point. In this case, those elements still exist and I’d greatly appreciate your thirst for knowledge in continuing, but I’m not offended if you stop right here. I’d even encourage you to share it with your friends who are stuck outside the paywall.
It’s not happening. Stop writing about it. Stop hypothesizing about what it would take to land him. Stop dedicating 15-minute YouTube videos to the impact he could have on another team’s pass rush.
Any knowledge about the past, present and future of this franchise further supports this truth.
I understand that’s no fun. Next thing you know, I’ll remind you that the trip back to college with your old buddies won’t make you feel young again, will produce a generational hangover and nobody at your old house thinks it is cool you lived there 10 years ago.
See, told you this was no fun.
Let’s go through the sobering realities of what the trade deadline for the Bengals — and the rest of the league — will actually look like.
The primary reason Hendrickson won’t be going anywhere: History.
History doesn’t have a 100 percent track record. I mean, we did see the first-ever trade between the Bengals and Browns just last month, but there’s an important fact to remember with the Bengals.
Name the last time the Bengals traded away a player at the deadline who could have helped them win games later that year? Extract Carlos Dunlap (2020) and Carson Palmer (2011) from this conversation, who blew up the organization to force an exit.
The answer? Never.
The Bengals and de facto GM Duke Tobin are not in the business of giving up on winning games this year to add assets for future seasons. It’s been the primary tenet of their in-season transaction history forever. Even going back to 2019, when the club was winless at the deadline and rebuilding under a new head coach. They had aging veterans A.J. Green and Geno Atkins on the roster, and teams were calling. Even in a clearly lost season, they said no.
Many factors have changed with the Bengals since then, but giving up on any season for future assets in early November is not on the table.
In terms of the present, the Bengals still have life. Sunday’s loss to the Jets was devastating and changed how the season is viewed. But they are in second place, one game in the win column behind the Steelers in the scuffling AFC North.
The only way out is defensive improvement. The most likely path to improvement would be a healthy return of Hendrickson. He’s been in and out of the lineup with a hip injury he originally sustained on Oct. 12 in Green Bay. Not coincidentally, the team’s defense took an even uglier turn for the worse since then.
He’s far from the only factor, but it’s hard to run from the numbers.
Consider the on-off field splits for Hendrickson this year. When he’s been on the field, the defense has not been OK. When he’s off, the results are historically bad. That’s been about a 50-percent proposition to this point.
Trey Hendrickson on/off field splits
Stat
On
Off
NFL AVG
Plays
279
245
458
Yards/play
5.7
6.8
5.4
EPA/play
-0.02
-0.27
0
Yards/attempt
7.3
8.5
7
Yards/rush
4
5.8
4.4
Success%
50%
43%
54%
Passer rating
85.3
127.8
93.7
They are so devoid of stars and playmakers, and the cliff is so steep to the young edge rushers behind him, his impact is even more substantial than that of an elite player on another defense.
The idea of trading away their best hope of serviceability doesn’t make sense from a franchise that won’t be giving up on the season, no matter how Sunday goes against the Bears.
Other deadline realities
• The obvious notion would be for the front office to add to a defense devoid of playmakers. An interior pass rusher would be atop the list, perhaps a veteran safety for depth and potential challenger to Geno Stone.
Don’t hold your breath. The Bengals are highly unlikely to make a move. They already gave up Day 3 draft capital to acquire Joe Flacco and are extremely hesitant to ever surrender future picks.
They rarely make in-season trades of any kind, despite the move for Flacco this year and running back Khalil Herbert at last year’s deadline. Those moves were based on injuries creating a point of no return. The front office has draft picks in line to play; the plan is for them to gain experience on the field. They aren’t viewing the deadline as an opportunity to stray away from that.
I told you this column wasn’t going to be fun.
• Logan Wiilson might have requested a trade, but it’s also unlikely he gets dealt. His contract creates problems. He’s signed through 2027 under the four-year, $36 million extension he signed in 2023. An acquiring team could get out of it, of course, but that’s a decent chunk to take on initially, even if parting ways with him in March.
He still plays a role in the Cincinnati defense. He played 20 snaps against the Jets and, by all accounts, has been a positive influence on rookie linebackers Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight, taking over the position. There’s a great chance the Bengals will move on from Wilson after this season and eat the dead money, but he’s not viewed as a big enough upgrade at that price to warrant much in return right now, if anything.
• There have been thoughts about trading troubled former Day 2 picks Cam Taylor-Britt, Jermaine Burton and McKinnley Jackson.
Taylor-Britt worked his way back into the lineup against the Jets and the staff is desperately hoping that being made a healthy scratch against Pittsburgh hit a motivational button in the embattled 2022 second-round cornerback.
He responded by playing well enough in practice to earn back his spot as CB3 and played 76 percent of the snaps. They need him. There’s minimal faith in the others around him, comparatively. This likely ends up his last year in stripes, barring a notable late-season charge, but he’ll stick around.
If some team is willing to offer anything for members of the doghouse, Burton and Jackson, the Bengals will listen. Don’t expect clamoring for the two busts of the 2024 third round, though.
All of this was a long way of saying the trade deadline will be much ado about nothing in Cincinnati, just like nearly every deadline for the Bengals.
