This morning we spent 90 minutes recording the new (revamped) podcast, where we discuss the difficult of trying to stay ‘sane’ in an insanity-inducing media ecosystem, relating to football especially (but the same thing works with politics and anything where tribal instincts are evoked).
There have been so many bad and downright terrible takes about the Reds, as websites and individuals seek clicks, not reasoned analysis.
We also discuss recent games, including some very revealing data, and talk about why we feel this is dissimilar to previous poor runs.
One small thing I mention is worth reiterating before the paywall (behind which is the podcast and all commenting).
Since Palace away, Liverpool are averaging just 0.88 non-penalty xG against per game (so excluding the two really unbelievable penalties) in the last five games.
That’s elite.
At the same time, Liverpool are averaging the creation of 2.26 non-penalty xG per game in these difficult games (of the run, five of six have been away, and four of the five games since Palace have been away).
That’s elite. That’s genuinely elite.
These are not the underlying numbers of a team playing badly. Game-state plays a part in going behind early, but to back to Palace as well, all six games in the run have seen a bizarre or unlikely concession of a goal.
That’s an xG Difference per game that is up with the best title-winning figures (title winners average +1.0 to +1.5 per game), and yet Arne Slot’s men achieved +1.36 in games against Chelsea away, Man United home (derby), Frankfurt away, Brentford away and Galatasaray away. Liverpool are playing better than when winning games with late winners.
Excluding those bizarre penalties, Liverpool have averaged an xG “win” (having +0.6 xG Difference or more) in all five games: +1.0, +0.9, +1.3, +3.0, +0.7. The Reds’ finishing has been poor at times, and the opposition have been unusually ruthless, especially early in games.
This is how football often works, as we’ve discussed on here for 16 years (and I’ve done so for 25 years online); and with xG data, for the past 10 years or so.
You have hot streaks in front of goal and cold streaks; teams you play have hot streaks against you, and cold streaks.
Some of our articles discussed in the podcast episode:
🤯 Liverpool Madness. Am I Insane, Or is it the World? 🤯
Horrible Aerial Duel Insanity Is One Factor Defining Liverpool’s Season
And on Daniel’s separate Substack:
Charles Reep Rises Again – How The Premier League’s Managers And Analysts Went Full ‘Reacher™’
“I must emphasise that my methods are not a declaration of how football should be played…
5 days ago · 7 likes · Daniel Rhodes
