Bitcoin’s onchain activity is heating up again, but analysts warn that the recovery may stall without renewed demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized cap – a measure of the total value of all coins based on the price at which they last moved – climbed by over $8 billion in the past week, bringing the total to more than $1.1 trillion. The increase signals a rise in investor participation and renewed capital inflows, even as broader market sentiment remains cautious after the recent $19 billion crypto sell-off.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said that while institutional channels like ETFs and corporate treasuries have been the dominant demand drivers, both have slowed their buying activity. “Demand is now driven mostly by ETFs and MicroStrategy, both slowing buys recently. If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns,” he wrote on X.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners continue to ramp up production capacity, pushing the network’s hash rate higher – a development Ju described as a “long-term bullish signal.” Companies such as American Bitcoin, which has links to the Trump family, have reportedly purchased thousands of new ASIC mining machines worth over $300 million to expand operations.
Despite the $8 billion inflow, investor confidence remains subdued. Sentiment indicators still hover in “Fear” territory, reflecting lingering caution despite broader economic developments, including renewed optimism around U.S.-China trade relations.
Analysts at Bitfinex say a stronger wave of ETF inflows and potential monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could shift the market tone dramatically. Their base scenario projects Bitcoin could reach as high as $140,000 by November if ETF investments total between $10 billion and $15 billion, alongside two Fed rate cuts and typical Q4 seasonal strength.
For now, though, Bitcoin’s recovery appears constrained – buoyed by onchain inflows and miner expansion, but waiting for the return of major institutional buyers to reignite its next leg upward.
Alexander has been working in the crypto industry for three years, during which time he has established himself through his active participation in monitoring market dynamics and technological innovations. His interest in cryptocurrencies and new technologies is not just a professional commitment, but a deep personal passion. He follows the news in the sector daily, analyzes trends, and is excited about every new step in the development of blockchain solutions. His enthusiasm drives him to continuously learn and share knowledge, as he sees the future in digital finance and its role in global transformation.
