Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats newsletter. We’re excited to announce a new partnership with Hudl. Hudl’s industry-leading tools – Sportscode, Instat, and Fastmodel – elevate the preparation, performance, and player development of WNBA and NCAA teams. We appreciate their support and look forward to working with them to help bring more insight about the women’s game to you.
You can find me on Bluesky and HHS on Bluesky, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
Duke’s Toby Fournier is one of the players I’m most excited to see this season, and we won’t have to wait long (Photo credit: Nat LeDonne/Duke athletics)
Two teams that hosted first-and-second round NCAA Tournament games in the spring will face off on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean to start the 2025-26 season as Duke, which was a No. 2 seed and lost to No. 1 seed South Carolina in the Elite Eight, faces Baylor, which was a No. 4 seed and came up short in the round of 32 against No. 5 seed Ole Miss. It’s the third season that Paris has hosted the Oui-Play season-opening event, and this will be the fourth ranked-vs-ranked matchup in the City of Lights. South Carolina started its perfect 2023-24 season ranked No. 6 and routed No. 10 Notre Dame in the first Division I women’s game played in Paris. Then, both of last year’s matchups pitted ranked teams as No. 3 USC barely survived against No. 20 Ole Miss, and No. 5 UCLA held off No. 17 Louisville. Baylor has dropped six straight against AP top-10 opponents since a win at No. 5 Texas in December 2023, while Duke had won five in a row against AP-ranked opponents before its loss to the Gamecocks in March. Before that streak, the Blue Devils started last season 5-4 against ranked teams. This is the first meeting between Duke and Baylor since the 2010 Elite Eight, when Brittney Griner had 15 points, 11 rebounds and 9 blocks to help No. 4 seed Baylor upset No. 2 seed Duke.
If you google “Fournier basketball,” the first result is French native Evan Fournier, a veteran of over 700 (M)NBA games and two-time Olympic silver medalist. He’s not related to Duke sophomore Toby Fournier, who is Canadian, but despite this not being a homecoming, she remains very high on the list of players I’m most excited to see this season. That’s largely because Fournier was one of the nation’s most productive freshmen last season — joined by only UConn’s Sarah Strong among major conference freshmen in averaging at least 10 points (13.2), five rebounds (5.3) and a block (1.1) per game while making 50% from the field (52.6%). Fournier’s also high on my list because she put those numbers up in just 20.2 minutes per game and without making a start, making me very curious to see how much her role changes in year two. The former five-star recruit and elite defender was in the 95th percentile in block rate and 96th percentile in blocks per 40 minutes as a freshman. One would think that the more minutes that she can handle, the better for a team that has made defense its calling card under sixth-year coach Kara Lawson. That includes the fourth-best HHS defensive rating last season (72.7 points allowed per 100 possessions against an average team) and three straight top-20 finishes in that category.
The Bears bring back less than a third of their points and minutes from last year’s team, which made a 22nd straight NCAA Tournament appearance but lost before the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons after going to 12 in a row. While there is quite a bit of turnover, Baylor does have last year’s second-leading scorer Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (13.8 points, 10.0 rebounds per game) back and brings in an explosive scoring threat in guard Taliah Scott, who was limited to just 23 games over the last two seasons at Arkansas and then Auburn, but averaged 21.9 points in them.
The second half of the Parisian double-header has a high likelihood of causing me to try to force a “royale with cheese” joke on Bluesky as high-scoring sophomore Mikayla Blakes — who cooked up multiple 50-burgers last season, the two highest-scoring games in SEC history — leads Vanderbilt onto the floor against California. The Commodores don’t look like they have the depth to bust my bracket be a sexy pick to make a run in the Big Dance after losing stars Iyana Moore (now at Tennessee) and Khamil Pierre (now at NC State) from last year’s 22-win team, but that might mean Blakes has no choice but to take on even more of the scoring. Cal made its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019 last year, but lost four of five starters from a team that didn’t have a bench player who averaged more than 2.8 points per game. The Golden Bears were picked to finish 12th in the 18-team ACC this season and will likely be asking a lot of lone returning starter Lulu Twidale.
The blowouts could start bright and early as No. 11 North Carolina hosts NC Central (9-21 last season) at 11 AM, although the Tar Heels will have to deal with preseason MEAC Player of the Year Morgan Callahan (12.1 points, 8.5 rebounds per game). There are also a handful of 2025 NCAA Tournament participants among those challenging ranked teams, but I don’t envy any of them. Norfolk State’s visit to No. 12 Ole Miss will be on the SEC Network at noon. The Spartans lost their top two scorers and top four in terms of minutes from last year’s MEAC champions. Grand Canyon brings back essentially none of its production from a team that went 32-2 and lost head coach Molly Miller to Arizona State, and the Lopes have the misfortune of starting at No. 2 South Carolina (which went 76-2 at home over the last five seasons). Southern was picked to repeat as SWAC champion and brings back about half its production, but opens in another of the country’s toughest environments at Iowa (where the Hawkeyes had won 20 straight before going 4-4 in Big Ten play last season). Last up is San Diego State, which won the Mountain West as the No. 4 seed in the conference last season and starts in Anaheim against No. 3 UCLA, which went to the Final Four and looks to be even better. Happy college hoops season!
Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats newsletter. We’re excited to announce a new partnership with Hudl. Hudl’s industry-leading tools – Sportscode, Instat, and Fastmodel – elevate the preparation, performance, and player development of WNBA and NCAA teams. We appreciate their support and look forward to working with them to help bring more insight about the women’s game to you.
You can find me on Bluesky and HHS on Bluesky, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.
