One big game of canny expectation management?published at 07:48 GMT
Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent, reporting from Downing Street
Taxes are going up. That’s clear now. And Rachel Reeves may well be more explicit than ever before about that this morning.
But which taxes, and by how much? Don’t expect new details there today.
For months there has been a live debate in government about whether to reach for the big revenue-raisers that Labour ruled out in their 2024 election manifesto, particularly income tax.
There are some in government who want this to be a one-and-done Budget. That’s to say they don’t want to come back again and again every year, eking out a bit more money in tax to meet the requirements of the independent forecast.
That’s an argument for raising billions of pounds through increasing at least one of the income tax rates. Remember, though, that no chancellor has increased the basic rate in 50 years — and politically, there is probably a reason for that.
And would it really be wise to break five decades of conventional political wisdom at a time when public trust in politics in general and Keir Starmer in particular is so low?
And would the prime minister and his chancellor really be able to land the argument that none of this was foreseeable before last year’s Budget, let alone before the general election?
There’s a lot of ifs there, and this all may well be one big game of canny expectation management. But those are the questions ricocheting around the top of government.
