My Week 9 straight-up picks went 10-4 last week. Let’s see if I can keep the momentum going.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-14 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 9 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Picks to win: 10-4 in Week 9 (92-42-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 6-2 (59-31-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-2 (33-11) - To cover the spread: 8-6 (69-64-3)
Spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 7-5 (58-53-2)
Spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-1 (10-11-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 10 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9)
The Broncos have shown that they have many paths to victory. Denver beat the Giants and Cowboys in high-scoring games recently, but also won low-scoring slug-fests against the Jets and Texans. The Raiders have a much more limited victory path. Las Vegas is 2-0 when allowing 13 or fewer points this year and 0-6 when giving up more than 13 points. Since the Broncos are very likely to score more than 13 points, they get my picks here by a wide margin.
- Pick to win: Denver (Confidence level: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (Confidence level: 6)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts (-6) (in Berlin)
The Colts are one of the most complete teams in the league, with the exception of one area: pass coverage. Indianapolis has posted mediocre or worse coverage metrics of late. This includes abysmal tight end coverage metrics. That trend will change with the addition of Sauce Gardner. He has posted elite coverage stats over the past month and can keep Drake London in check. Combine that with the Colts having many other personnel advantages, and I’ll take Indianapolis to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Indianapolis (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: Indianapolis (CL: 4)
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Miami Dolphins
Buffalo has won seven straight and 14 out of the last 15 matchups between these teams. Just about every measurement for this game suggests this will continue. The Bills have a better ground attack, stronger pass rush and better pass coverage. Buffalo also doesn’t have to deal with the issues that arise when a team fires its GM and trades away a top defensive player to build for the future. The main concern is that the Bills may have a letdown after last week’s emotional win over Kansas City. That lowers my confidence levels, but Buffalo still gets the win and cover picks.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Buffalo (CL: 4)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
Carolina is a tough team to get a read on. The Panthers got destroyed by a 40-9 margin at home against Buffalo in Week 8, yet turned around and beat the Packers in Lambeau Field last week. The Saints are not difficult to read. The only win New Orleans has this year is a 26-14 triumph over the Giants. The Saints have not scored that many points or allowed that few in any other contest. The former won’t change with Tyler Shough at quarterback, and the Panthers’ talented offense will prevent the latter.
- Pick to win: Carolina (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Carolina (CL: 6)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-1)
Houston would be more than a one-point favorite if C.J. Stroud were trending towards playing in this contest. Even with Stroud out, the Texans have multiple advantages. Houston has had some of the best pass coverage metrics over the past month. They are also better at special teams and have a notable edge in pass blocking. That last fact illustrates just how good DeMeco Ryans and his staff are at solving problems. It’s enough to place my picks in the Houston column.
- Pick to win: Houston (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 2)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
The Bears are only a slight favorite for this matchup. My metric review strongly suggests that Chicago should be a much more prohibitive favorite. The Giants’ defense has been atrocious of late, especially on the ground. It’s why New York has allowed 33 or more points in three straight games. The Bears did allow 47 points last week, but Chicago has racked up three or more takeaways in five of the past six games. The Bears are also healthier and have better offensive-line and defensive-front-seven play.
- Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 6)
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Minnesota Vikings
The Ravens have been back to their top form since Lamar Jackson returned. Minnesota notched an impressive upset win over Detroit last week, but it’s safe to say that the Vikings’ offense is still a work in progress with J.J. McCarthy under center. Minnesota does have much better special teams metrics, a powerful pass rush and home-field advantage. Those factors are enough to make this game close enough to split my picks. I’ll take Baltimore to win but Minnesota to cover.
- Pick to win: Baltimore (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Minnesota (CL: 1)
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at New York Jets
The Jets just had a fire sale of players and reportedly would have traded Breece Hall had another team offered a mere third-round pick. Hall’s reaction to not being traded suggests he wishes he had been. Cleveland may be in the midst of a lost year, but they don’t have this post-trade baggage. I’ll take the Browns for a close win and cover.
- Pick to win: Cleveland (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Cleveland (CL: 2)
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
This is one of the toughest games to pick in Week 10. The Patriots and Buccaneers rate evenly or very close to even in just about every category. The Buccaneers have a slight edge in pass blocking and pass rush. The Patriots have a notable advantage in rush defense. New England is better at controlling game pace. That’s why the Patriots are 7-0 when scoring 23 or more points and 0-2 when scoring less than 23 points. New England’s offense should be able to generate another 23-plus point game and thus control the game pace.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: New England (CL: 4)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Seattle doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit for how well it is playing right now. The Seahawks have great pass coverage metrics across the board, a top-flight rush defense and maybe the best pass rush in the NFL. Seattle has superb pass blocking, an All-Pro-caliber wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and just added speedster Rashid Shaheed. Oh yeah, the Seahawks also have Sam Darnold, who has played as well here as he did in Minnesota last year. This may be the most lopsided comparison in my Week 10 stat review, so Seattle gets this week’s highest confidence levels.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 7)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Both the Rams and the 49ers have powerful offenses, so we’ll call that comparison a push. Los Angeles has a significant advantage on defense. The Rams have allowed only 20 total points over the past three games and have some of the best run defense and pass coverage metrics in that same span. San Francisco can make up for most of that deficit with a gargantuan special teams advantage. That’s enough to make this a split pick.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 1)
- Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 1)
Detroit Lions (-9.5) at Washington Commanders
The Lions have been a very focused team under Dan Campbell’s guidance. That focus was not evident in last week’s disappointing loss to Minnesota. A road matchup against an overmatched Commanders team may just be what Campbell needs to get his team’s mind back where it should be. Detroit has the edge in every offensive and defensive category for this game.
- Pick to win: Detroit (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Detroit (CL: 6)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
The Steelers shut down two of the league’s best rushing attacks in Weeks 8-9. The problem for Pittsburgh is that those teams racked up nearly 700 passing yards. Los Angeles has seen plenty of success with its pass game this year, so look for the Chargers to go after this weakness. The Steelers can nullify that advantage with one of the biggest special teams metrics disparities in the Week 10 schedule. It’s not enough to give Pittsburgh my win selection, but it keeps these confidence levels low.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 1)
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
This game could be a case of perfect timing for the Eagles. Carolina got creative and persistent with its ground attack in last week’s contest at Green Bay. It resulted in the Packers giving up a season high in rush yards allowed. Philadelphia recaptured its 2024 ground game magic in Week 9 with 276 rushing yards against the Giants. Nick Sirianni will lean on that as much as possible this week. That old school approach motivates me to put both of these picks in the Eagles column.
- Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Philadelphia (CL: 3)
