The final day of the regular 2025 ATP season is upon us as two top 10 players battle for the ATP 250 title in Athens. Top seeds Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti face off with significant Nitto ATP finals implications on the line. With high intensity expected and both players motivated, here at LWOT, we will offer a complete match prediction. But, only one can take the trophy, and who do you think it will be?
ATP Athens Final Prediction
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Djokovic 8-1 Musetti
This matchup remains arguably the toughest one on tour for Lorenzo Musetti, as Novak Djokovic has won eight of their nine meetings so far. This includes him winning their last five outings together, while Musetti has failed to win a single set across their previous nine.
One key issue for the Italian has been his forehand, which requires time to load up due to a longer backswing. This is something that elite returners and baseliners can exploit, and Djokovic fits in both of those categories. Additionally, while Musetti’s single-handed backhand is solid and offers a great variety of spin, Djokovic has historically dominated players who can use that wing, owning a remarkable 84.5 percent career win rate against them, excluding Roger Federer.
So far this week, both players have produced solid tennis when needed. Musetti has dropped two sets on his way to the final, but one could argue that he has reached the highest level of tennis this week, especially in the first set of his semifinal against Sebastian Korda. Djokovic, meanwhile, has been consistent throughout the tournament, not dropping a single set so far. Although he has looked physically laboured at times, he has made up for it by being extremely clutch under pressure.
Indoors, Djokovic has the better serve, baseline shot quality, and tennis IQ. Although the match means far more to Musetti, who is fighting not only for his first title in over three years but also for a direct qualification to Turin, the Serbian’s technical and tactical advantages are too substantial to overlook, even against a motivated opponent.
Prediction: Djokovic in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – Imagn Images
