With four match weekends remaining before the draw for Rugby World Cup 2027 takes place on 3 December, time is running out for teams to get themselves in a more favourable position in the World Rugby Rankings.
The rankings will determine which bands the teams fall into, and as things stand, South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, England, France and Argentina are in Band 1.
Australia, Scotland, Fiji, Italy, Georgia and Wales are currently in Band 2, with Japan, USA, Samoa – if they qualify, Chile and Tonga in Band 3.
If the draw was made today, and assuming Samoa win the Final Qualification Tournament, Band 4 would include Uruguay, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Canada and Zimbabwe.
Current world number one South Africa would probably have to lose all three remaining Quilter Nations Series games against France, Italy and Wales for their place in Band 1 to be under any sort of threat, and even then it is highly improbable, given over nine points separates them from Australia in seventh.
However, they are vulnerable to losing top spot this weekend. South Africa’s lead over New Zealand is 1.20 points heading into the weekend, but that could be wiped out if things don’t go well for them against France in Paris.
If the Springboks lose and the All Blacks beat Scotland at Murrayfield, which they have done on every visit since the last of two draws in 1983, New Zealand will take over at the top.
South Africa are guaranteed to remain as the world’s number one if they manage at least a draw with Les Bleus at the Stade de France.
Ireland are the only team in the top 10 of the rankings who aren’t able to pick up any points this weekend, due to the big points differential and 10 places that separate them and this weekend’s opponents, Japan.
If Ireland win, they are safe in third regardless of what England below them do against Fiji at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. An Ireland loss or a draw combined with wins for both England and France would result in them dropping to fifth, a position that they last held in March 2022.
With just 0.02 points at most available for beating Fiji, England are unable to improve on fourth place unless France and Ireland fail to get a win on the board. The last time England were in the top three was at the start of 2022, before Steve Borthwick became head coach.
Meanwhile, France will climb two places to third in victory, with an additional place possible if they win by more than 15 points and Scotland do them a big favour and beat the All Blacks for the first time in Test history. Fourth place is the lowest that New Zealand can fall this weekend.
Argentina’s status as the last of the six teams currently positioned in band one is reliant on them not losing to Wales in Cardiff.
They could still lose and escape dropping out of the top six, but that would be dependent on some unpredictable results happening in matches involving teams around them in the rankings. If Los Pumas lose, they’ll be replaced in the top six by Australia, as long as the Wallabies prevail in Italy.
There’s a chance that Scotland will be rewarded for a first-ever win over the All Blacks in 120 years with a place in the top six, but there would have to be a few other shock results for it to happen.
For the teams below, getting into Band 1 looks a tall order, although a repeat of their 2023 win over England at Allianz Stadium would give ninth-placed Fiji’s chances a serious shot in the arm. For Fiji to break into the top six, they need to beat England and hope that Wales can at least hold Argentina to a draw.
The likelihood is that Band 2 will be made up of either Argentina/Australia, Scotland, Fiji, Italy and then two of any three from Georgia, Wales and Japan, which makes Wales’ meeting with Japan in Cardiff on Saturday week even more special.
Italy can’t improve on 10th place even if they repeat their historic win over Australia a few years ago in Florence. Their place in the top 10 is secure in defeat, though, as even a heavy defeat combined with a landslide win for Wales over Argentina will still leave them fractionally ahead of their Six Nations rivals.
A draw would be enough for Wales to move up a place to 11th, with Georgia, who can’t gain any points for a win over the USA, the side to fall. A shock loss for 11th-placed Georgia at the hands of the USA will cost them two places, with the Lelos dropping to 13th, one place above the Eagles.
A defeat for Wales will only see them drop from 12th place if Japan avoid defeat against Ireland.
Rankings points are also on the line in Dubai, where the Final Qualification Tournament is taking place. The matches between Samoa and Brazil and Belgium and Namibia can be watched live on RugbyPass TV, with the results not only having a significant impact on their Rugby World Cup dreams but also the rankings. Plus there’s also an international between Colombia and Georgia, two Rugby Europe Trophy games and one in the Conference.
