Boston Bruins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, CBC, NESN
The Leafs last game was at home on November 5 against the Utah Mammoth, which Toronto won by a score of 5-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 8-5-1 for a 0.607 Points %.
The Boston Bruins last played at home on November 6 against the Ottawa Senators. The Bruins won by a score of 3-2 in overtime, and their current league record is 9-7-0 for a 0.562 Points %.
Them
I look at the standings, and a decent if not stellar Points %, and then I look at the lineup, and it doesn’t add up. Is this just the weird “everyone is tied in the Eastern Conference” thing or are the Bruins stealthily better than they appear?
At five-on-five, the Bruins are 26th in Corsi or Expected Goals percentage, so tied with the Leafs in the first one, and well behind in the second. They have a dull offensive pace – brought on in no small part by too little time spent in the offensive zone – but they allow higher quality shots against than the Leafs do.
To be honest, there isn’t a great deal separating these two teams in terms of results, but it’s hard to find the potential for improvement that seems obvious with the Leafs lineup (offer not valid for doomers). The Bruins have a very poor quality of offence on the power play, and they underscore expected by a little. Since it’s only a little, and most teams are underscoring by a lot more, they rate out as average in goals for.
Jeremy Swayman has been a good starter, not blowing anyone away, but he’s got much better results than Anthony Stolarz so far. Joonas Korpisalo has been okay and has a Goals Saved Above Expected (Moneypuck) rate almost identical to Stolarz’s. They’ve each let in a couple of goals more than expected.
Morgan Geekie leads the team in goals and deservedly as he also leads in Expected Goals. Beyond him, David Pastrnak and Viktor Arvidsson are the dangerous shooters. Fraser Minten has great Expected Goals stats on a modest rate of shooting and has looked like a real NHL player so far after a less than exciting showing last year post-trade.
Marat Khusnutdinov is both a very odd choice to be a 1C on any team, but also the clearest indicator that the Bruins have stripped their lineup about as bare as you can without actually trading Pastrnak and Swayman. Elias Lindholm is injured, so it’s not like they planned this. The team also recalled Alex Steeves from the minors, who is in the lineup today.
Charlie McAvoy is home because of a personal matter. Casey Mittlestadt (upper body) did not travel.
— Fluto Shinzawa (@FlutoShinzawa) November 8, 2025
Lines
Today’s skate
Morgan Geekie – Marat Khusnutdinov – David Pastrnak
Alex Steeves – Pavel Zacha – Viktor Arvidsson
Tanner Jeannot – Fraser Minten – Mark Kastelic
Jeffrey Viel – Sean Kuraly – Michael Eyssimont
Nikita Zadorov – Henri Jokiharju
Hampus Lindholm – Andrew Peeke
Mason Lohrei – Jonathan Aspirot
Jeremy Swayman – presumed starter
Joonas Korpisalo
Us
I read a semi-serious buy-in today on William Nylander’s offhand remark about their Halloween party in Philly being the key to their recent good play. Maybe it did help. Regardless the lass two games were okay to good if viewed objectively in isolation, but were spectacular relative to most of what came before.
By the results so far, the Leafs are very indistinguishable from the Bruins in all areas of play. I don’t expect that to continue even if the Bruins will ultimately fare better than their lineup leads you to expect.
Dennis Hildeby will back up today, and will play tomorrow.
Lines
Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Nicholas Robertson – John Tavares – Bobby McMann
Dakota Joshua – Nicolas Roy – Matias Maccelli
Steven Lorentz – Scott Laughton – Max Domi
Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit – Philippe Myers
Anthony Stolarz – starter
Dennis Hildeby
The Game
Someone has to have the puck more between these two possession challenged teams. How about you, Leafs?
