Rock-solid Arsenal on course for title triumph while Manchester United and Crystal Palace should kick on
We are ten games into the 2025-26 Premier League season and the table has started to take shape.
However, the standings do not always tell the full story as fixture difficulty and luck in close games can leave some teams in a false position.
The main question that needs answering after the first ten rounds of fixtures is whether any side, other than Arsenal, are actually that good. The Gunners have a six-point lead and the same margin covers the next 11 teams in the table.
The increased competitiveness of mid-table teams in the past couple of seasons means plenty of them are capable of beating anyone on their day.
But those clubs have their own flaws which can also be exposed, leading to the current cycle in which they fluctuate rapidly from being described as either in form or under pressure.
Defensive excellence puts Gunners on track for title
Arsenal’s position as the standout team in the division is backed up by the underlying data, albeit with a slightly smaller margin in hand over Manchester City, who are the clear pick of the chasing bunch.
Only City star Erling Haaland has scored against the Gunners from open play and Mikel Arteta’s men are on track to finish with one of the best defensive records in Premier League history.
There is still a long way to go, of course, but if Arsenal maintain anything close to that defensive performance then they should win the league.
Injuries at the back, or to key midfielder Declan Rice, are their biggest concern. A defensive dip would put more pressure on the Gunners’ open-play attack, although they may improve in that area anyway when injured players return.
Arsenal are the only team who have consistently found the balance to win with control while also thriving with the physicality of the league. They have demonstrated more ways to win games than the Citizens, for whom, it has been Haaland or bust so far.
The recent return of Omar Marmoush may ease some of the goalscoring burden on the prolific Haaland and perhaps Rodri’s latest comeback from injury will erase some of their lingering vulnerabilities.
If the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner can get back to something resembling his best form then City have enough quality to challenge Arsenal. However, it is hard to see Pep Guardiola’s men peeling off one of the relentless winning runs that characterised their successful title run-ins during their peak.
Lack of control leaves Liverpool with ground to make up
Behind the top two is where it gets interesting as Liverpool have lost the control that was a hallmark of last season’s title triumph.
More end-to-end games have led to extreme results of six wins and four defeats for the Reds, whose underlying numbers are more akin to a good top-four side rather than title contenders.
But, as the accompanying graph shows, they are poised to benefit from the biggest easing in fixture difficulty, which will become even more favourably skewed following Sunday’s trip to City.
After that game, seven of Liverpool’s next nine fixtures are against sides projected by the spread firms to finish in the bottom seven. For that to matter, though, Arne Slot’s men must avoid losing further ground this weekend.
Manchester United see a similar easing in fixture difficulty as they are the only team to have ticked off matches against each of last season’s top four.
After last season’s horror show, United are, at the very least, competent. Their summer signings are contributing and look better fits for their system.
Under Ruben Amorim, they have generally been better in games in which they have less of the ball. Success in their upcoming stretch of fixtures will depend on whether their increased preference for long balls proves as effective against opponents who will be more inclined to sit back.
The biggest factor in their favour is that they have no reported first-team injuries after Lisandro Martinez’s return to training.
United are back in the mix to challenge for a Europa League spot, and the next two months, when they have free midweeks, will be their best opportunity to put the pressure on rivals who are involved in Europe.
If the eighth-placed Red Devils are worth a small upgrade based on schedule then ninth-placed Crystal Palace merit a bigger one on underlying data. The scattergraph shows that they rank third in expected points.
Palace’s big-chance creation is among the best in the league but their conversion rate of those opportunities has been the worst.
Punters should be bullish about the Eagles given that their impressive performances stretch back to last season, but their squad depth will be tested by a brutally congested fixture list.
Lack of creativity is major concern for Tottenham
The upper-table team that the data has cast most doubt on is Tottenham – even before last weekend’s 1-0 home defeat to Chelsea.
Given the defensive mess inherited by Thomas Frank, it is understandable that his first priority was to inject some stability.
However, that has come at the cost of chance creation, papered over by an unsustainable conversion rate, and Spurs’ stuttering ball progression is hampering them at home, where the onus is on them to dictate proceedings.
The injury list hasn’t helped Frank, although he found some solutions in Tuesday’s 4-0 Champions League win over Copenhagen.
Aston Villa’s creative numbers are similarly concerning if they want to get back into Europe, although a lot of the damage was done in their first five games.
Villa, like Sunday’s opponents Bournemouth, have converted an unsustainable 12 per cent of their shots from outside the box – more than double the league average.
Black Cats have cashed in on soft fixture list
Promoted Sunderland have been one of the success stories this season but their ascent to fourth has been boosted by the softest set of fixtures and running hot at both ends of the pitch.
Four of their next nine games are against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City (twice) but they can approach those as a free hit. Regression into the bottom half is expected but the Black Cats have banked half of the points they will likely need to survive in just a quarter of the season.
Prioritising solidity is the best way for promoted sides to stay competitive. Sunderland and Leeds, prior to last weekend’s off-day at Brighton, appear to have learned that lesson, although Leeds need to improve their finishing.
Fellow newcomers Burnley have ten points but are being outshot to the greatest extent at both ends of the pitch. That trend screams relegation if it continues but the Clarets have a history of belying their underlying data.
Saturday’s fixture at West Ham is huge for Burnley following the Hammers’ 3-1 win over Newcastle last weekend.
West Ham were helped by a listless display from Eddie Howe’s Magpies, who deserve more points due to impressive early-season defensive numbers but have let their standards slip as their fixtures got harder.
A fluke Sven Botman own goal got the Hammers into the winning gamestate that suits Nuno Espirito Santo’s style but their defensive weakness leaves doubts over how many more wins they will be able to claim before they get the chance to reinforce their squad in January.
Bottom club Wolves are unlucky to be tailed off to such an extent. However, they are the only team to have burned up fixtures against all three promoted sides, so a repeat of last season’s escape is hard to envisage.
Nottingham Forest look capable of a low mid-table finish based on their data and points won when ignoring the games in which they were managed by Ange Postecoglou.
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