Three to Watch: MVP Showdown Between Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield Headlines Clash of Division Leaders
The Patriots are back on the road this weekend, heading to Tampa Bay to take on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. New England is riding a six-game win streak and sitting atop the AFC East at 7-2, while the Buccaneers are coming off their bye week at 6-2, leading the NFC South despite a growing list of injuries. Both teams have leaned heavily on their quarterbacks to carry the load, and Sunday’s matchup will feature two of the league’s most compelling MVP candidates in Mayfield and Drake Maye.
Mayfield has elevated Tampa Bay’s offense even as key weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have missed time, while Maye continues to deliver explosive plays for New England despite mounting sacks and the loss of Rhamondre Stevenson.
It’s a key contest for both teams, as they look to solidify their place in the standings with winter football rapidly approaching.
Here are three things to watch!
Baker Mayfield has been the driving force behind Tampa’s success, keeping the offense afloat despite injuries and a declining run game without lead back Bucky Irving. Rookie Emeka Egbuka has emerged as a reliable target, but Mayfield’s ability to extend plays and make throws on the run is what makes him dangerous. The Patriots defense, ranked 8th in EPA and 10th in pressure rate, must do more than just get after him, they need to keep him in the pocket and force him to win from structure.
Mayfield’s built an impressive resume of late-game heroics, and New England cannot allow him to will his team to victory in the fourth quarter. Tampa’s offense ranks just 20th in DVOA, but the Patriots can still expect a 60-minute game against a team with plenty of vets on both sides of the ball who know how to win.
New England’s zone-heavy approach to coverage has worked fairly well in recent weeks against younger quarterbacks, but Mayfield is a different beast. A heavier dose of man coverage could be on the menu for New England’s defense this week.
Drake Maye continues to flash elite traits, but the hits are adding up. He’s already taken 34 sacks, matching last year’s total in four fewer games, and with Stevenson out, the burden on Maye is even greater. Still, Maye’s ability to erase mistakes with explosive downfield throws has kept the offense rolling.
New England ranks 7th in offensive EPA and 7th in points scored, but Tampa’s secondary will be a significant challenge. Antoine Winfield Jr is a game-changer on the back end who will make quarterbacks pay for their mistakes. Tampa’s defense ranks 7th in DVOA, 3rd in EPA and 3rd in pressure rate, and Todd Bowles’ aggressive scheme will be a difficult new problem for Maye and Josh McDaniels to solve.
Tampa will test Maye’s poise, especially if Bowles dials up the kind of blitz-heavy game plan that gave Maye trouble last week against Atlanta.
TreVeyon Henderson gave the Patriots a spark against Atlanta, showing the burst and vision that made him a summer standout. With Stevenson sidelined, Henderson’s role is expanding, but running into monstrous defensive tackle Vita Vea isn’t the answer.
Tampa’s run defense is stout, ranking 7th in rushing yards and 6th in rushing yards-per-attempt, but the Patriots should continue to scheme Henderson into space, where he can create explosive plays and take pressure off Maye. If Henderson can consistently pick up solid yardage or spark a big play, it could change the dynamic of the game.
Tampa’s defense is coming off their best game of the season, a 23-3 win over the Saints in which they had four takeaways and only allowed 48 rushing yards.
A quality performance from the ground game, led by Henderson, will be a big challenge, but if the Pats can get it going, it will be a huge help in keeping the pressure off of Maye and the passing game.
