Shakespeare shakes up Best Picture Oscar race: ‘Hamnet’ takes the lead over ‘One Battle After Another’

In the ever-shifting Oscar landscape, Hamnet has pulled off the the biggest move in a month: overtaking what had seemed to be the prohibitive favorite, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, in the Gold Derby odds for predicted Best Picture nominees.

The Shakespeare-inspired drama now leads the pack by a narrow margin, with a 96.8 percent chance to be nominated, compared to 95.8 percent for One Battle After Another.

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Directed by Oscar winner Chloé Zhao, Hamnet is a deeply emotional dramatization of the real-world circumstances that may have inspired William Shakespeare’s Hamlet. The Focus Feature film, staring Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, occupied the top slot in September, after its warm reception at the Telluride Film Festival followed by winning the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.

But in early October, Anderson’s film surged to No. 1 following a strong opening weekend and had held the spot until this past weekend.

The two films are both considered locks for nominations and expected to be competing for top prizes throughout awards season.

For the predicted Best Director field, Anderson still has the lead over Zhao. In the acting categories, Buckley leads the predicted Best Actress nominees, while Leonardo DiCaprio continues to dominate Best Actor predictions for One Battle After Another.

Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film

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TORONTO, ONTARIO – SEPTEMBER 06: Nicholas Hytner of “The Choral” poses in the Getty Images Portrait Studio Presented by IMDb and IMDbPro during the Toronto International Film Festival at InterContinental Toronto Centre on September 06, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images for IMDb)

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 23: Embeth Davidtz attends the BFI 90th Anniversary party hosted by BFI America at British Consulate General Residence on April 23, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by JC Olivera/Getty Images)

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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 23: Filmmaker Angus MacLachlan attends the 2023 Sundance Film Festival “A Little Prayer” Premiere at The Ray Theatre on January 23, 2023 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Leon Bennett/Getty Images)

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HOLLYWOOD, CA – FEBRUARY 28: Director Duke Johnson (L) and producer Rosa Tran attend the 88th Annual Academy Awards at Hollywood & Highland Center on February 28, 2016 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

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Trevor Jackson, Dewanda Wise and Spike Lee attends the Essence Black Women In Hollywood Awards Luncheon at the Beverly Wilshire on February 21, 2019 in Beverly Hills, California.

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TORONTO, ONTARIO – SEPTEMBER 07: Mike Flanagan of ‘The Life of Chuck’ poses in the Getty Images Portrait Studio Presented by IMDb and IMDbPro during the Toronto International Film Festival at InterContinental Toronto Centre on September 07, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images for IMDb)

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Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film

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Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film

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Anderson’s film, which hit theaters on Sept. 26, follows DiCaprio’s Bob Ferguson — a former counterculture radical turned reclusive addict whose life spirals after his daughter Willa (played by newcomer Chase Infiniti) is abducted by an ultra-conservative Army colonel, Steve Lockjaw (Sean Penn). The ensemble cast also features Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, and Regina Hall.

Last week, the film scored a leading six Gotham Award nominations, including Best Feature, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and acting nods for Del Toro, Taylor, and Infiniti. While Hamnet received bids for Best Picture and Best Director, Zhao and Mescal were overlooked in the director and supporting acting categories.

Hamnet could see another boost when it opens nationwide on Nov. 27, potentially widening its lead in what is shaping up to be a very close race two months before the Jan. 22 Oscar nominations.