The Golden State Warriors have fallen to 5-5 in the 2025-26 season, and they’re hoping to get star guard Steph Curry back in action on Sunday against the Indiana Pacers.
This season has been a year from hell for the Pacers, as they’ve dealt with injuries to a ton of rotation players, leading to a 1-8 start. The Pacers are massive underdogs on the road in the second night of a back-to-back on Sunday, a sign that Curry may be on his way back for Golden State.
Curry is officially listed as questionable, and the Warriors struggled without him, losing by five to Sacramento and 25 to Denver, scoring just 104 points in the loss to Nikola Jokic and company.
Can Golden State bounce back at home against one of the worst teams in the NBA so far this season?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this interconference clash.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
Total
Pacers Injury Report
Warriors Injury Report
Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet
Butler has only cleared this line in four games this season, and he’s averaging 18.7 points on just 11.6 shots per game.
If Curry returns, Butler may have a smaller role on offense, as he’s taken 14 or fewer shots in seven of his nine games. The Pacers aren’t great defensively, but Butler’s usage has been a little too low for me to trust him at this number, especially if Golden State gets up big and ends up resting players down the stretch.
The OVER is 7-3 in the Warriors’ 10 games this season, as the team ranks just 14th in defensive rating. Draymond Green had some choice words for the team’s defense after the loss to Denver, but this is a much easier matchup against Indiana.
Still, the Pacers are in the middle of the pack in the league in defensive rating, and Golden State’s offense should receive a massive boost if Curry returns to action. The Pacers are just 22nd in the league in opponent points per game this season.
While the UNDER has hit in seven of the Pacers’ nine games in the 2025-26 season, this total has dipped pretty low for a Golden State team that has 230 or more combined points in six of 10 games.
These teams also combined for 123 points in a Pacers win earlier this season. If Golden State can get back on track on offense, it should be able to push this game into the 230s.
Pick: OVER 228.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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