Sports Mole previews Monday’s ATP Finals round-robin match between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.
ATP World Tour Finals debutant Lorenzo Musetti faces Taylor Fritz on Monday, aiming to refocus after a marathon Athens final loss to Novak Djokovic on Saturday.
The Italian played the ATP 250 event needing to win to secure a spot in Turin; however, despite losing to Djokovic in three hours, the Serbian’s withdrawal means Musetti gets his chance on home turf at the year-end event.
Match preview
While the ATP have announced changes to qualification for the Finals from 2026, this year’s chaotic situation highlighted the problems of leaving things to the last minute.
Although it created drama, the uncertainty of whether Djokovic would participate, Musetti facing a must-win scenario or Felix Auger-Aliassime playing in Turin was frustrating at times.
Musetti gave his all in Greece en route to competing to end his three-year title drought, pushing 24-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic to a decider that ebbed and flowed until the 38-year-old claimed his 101st title.
Now aiming to recover and refocus quickly, the 23-year-old returns home to Turin, seeking another victory over Taylor Fritz to secure a fourth consecutive win against the American No. 1.
However, the former world No. 6 faces a tough challenge of recovering in time as he strives to improve his 44-20 record for the season.
Fritz, who hopes to take advantage of any fatigue, has lost three of their previous tour-level meetings.
The world No. 4’s form since Tokyo has been inconsistent, having reached the final after winning seven matches in succession, including two at the Laver Cup.
Since losing to Carlos Alcaraz, however, the 28-year-old has won just 50% of his six tour-level matches, exiting quickly in Shanghai, Basel and Paris ahead of the year-end tournament.
It remains to be seen if Turin plays out differently, but a player with 55 wins in 2025 will back himself to improve his 55-21 record.
Having made it to the title match 12 months ago before losing to Jannik Sinner, Fritz returns to Turin seeking a victory over another home player to claim Monday’s win in the Jimmy Connors Group.
Head To Head
Paris Olympics (2024) – Round of 16: Musetti 6-4 7-5
Wimbledon (2024) – Quarter-final: Musetti 3-6 7-6(5) 6-2 3-6 6-1
Monte-Carlo Masters (2024) – Round of 64: Musetti 6-4 6-4
Davis Cup Finals (2022) – Quarter-final: Fritz 7-6(8) 6-3
Wimbledon (2022) – First round: Fritz 6-4 6-4 6-3
Fritz previously defeated Musetti in their first two matches on the ATP Tour, but the Italian has turned the tide by winning three in a row.
Those wins have been particularly notable, taking place at a Masters 1000 event in Monte Carlo, a gripping five-set match at Wimbledon and at the Paris Olympics, all last year.
Heading into Monday, the Italian No. 2 has a 5-8 record against top-10 players this season and has lost four straight matches to such opponents, including defeats to Alcaraz, Sinner, Alexander Zverev and Djokovic.
Although Fritz has a losing 3-4 record against top-tier players in 2025, the American has secured two of his last three victories, beating Zverev and Alcaraz at the Laver Cup.
We say: Fritz to win in two sets
Musetti should be the narrow favourite based on their previous encounters; however, his physical and mental exertion in Athens must be taken into account.
As a result, Fritz is more likely to outperform the Italian, who may not have much energy left before their round-robin opener.
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