The recent release of multiplatform data is the talk of the town this week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, as it helps to make some of their shows look a bit safer and solidifies others as the most obviously endangered shows on the network. Plus, a combination of factors leads to one show previously seen as a lock to get a downgrade.
Prediction Key:
Week 4 Predictions:
Shows’ 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are listed in parenthesis
Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage: It’s one of CBS’s highest-rated shows, but is Georgie & Mandy truly a lock? I’m not convinced. It’s a very strong L+SD performer, though a step below Young Sheldon, but its multiplatform+7 gains are towards the middle of the pack for CBS’s crop, ranking ninth of eighteen shows on the network. The show adds a full million viewers less than fellow Thursday comedy Ghosts, and also less viewers than Matlock and Elsbeth, two Thursday shows with far fewer linear viewers. Is that a sign that the show is going to be canceled? I don’t think so, but it is possible it’s less safe than we may think. CBS doesn’t own it in any way, and Warner Brothers Discovery doesn’t necessarily need it renewed to keep the Big Bang Universe alive, as they’ve already got a spinoff premiering on HBO Max, meaning they may make less of a push to save it than they would if it were their last remaining link to one of the studio’s most popular shows ever. I think it’s only a very small chance at the moment that Georgie & Mandy might find itself without a place one CBS’s schedule next year, but I don’t think the chance is zero. CBS is already going through an odd predicament with comedy right now, as The Neighborhood is ending and DMV is looking on thin ice. If both Monday comedies are gone after this year, CBS would need to either premiere two Monday comedies (not impossible, as that’s what happened when The Neighborhood first premiered, but it seems a bit unlikely), move one of the Thursday comedies, or cut a comedy hour altogether. If they opt to cut comedy, Georgie & Mandy would then have to compete with their comedy projects in development, including Eternally Yours. That show comes from the creators of Ghosts and is produced by CBS Studios, unlike Georgie & Mandy. I don’t see it as likely that they’d pick a new pilot over Georgie & Mandy (though that’s what they did with Poppa’s House). However, Georgie & Mandy is likely a more expensive option than a new show (it films in the US, unlike DMV and Ghosts), and CBS has made it clear that cost is a major factor in renewals. Georgie & Mandy’s value is reduced thanks to those expenses and its ownership situation, making it slightly vulnerable to a surprise cancellation. To be safe, Georgie & Mandy is downgraded this week to a likely renewal.
DMV: While Georgie & Mandy is downgraded this week, DMV is staying where it is for right now. I’m not currently willing to bet on CBS cutting comedy or airing two new comedies in the fall next season, which are the only two realistic outcomes of a DMV cancellation. However, it isn’t really doing very well. This week, the show did rise a bit, but it still dropped a full tenth from The Neighborhood in L+SD ratings, its worst retention thus far. It dropped lower than Poppa’s House’s series low just three episodes into its run, while The Neighborhood is barely down from last season. Its multiplatform gains are also mediocre. While it gained more viewers than The Neighborhood for the one episode we have data for, and it also had more MP+7 viewers in general, that is not saying much. The Neighborhood a bona fide multiplatform flop, despite its strong linear performance. DMV was in twelfth place among CBS’s lineup in MP+7 ratings, and that only reinforces its status as a strong bubble show. It’s very likely it’s dropped since then, as pilots tend to draw more viewers then ensuing episodes due to sampling. The hope is that we get some additional MP+7 data down the line to see where DMV has held up. For now, the show could go either way and it wouldn’t be surprising. A renewal feels like the more convenient option here thanks to CBS’s other Monday night comedy already ending this season, but if they do like two comedy pilots and want to launch both next season, then DMV is probably out of luck. It leans renewal for now, but it is by no means safe, and a downgrade is very much on the table.
Watson: It’s no secret that Watson has struggled to find an audience. That was the case last season when it was hitting 0.2s behind a strong Tracker lead-in, and it’s the. case now. With just a 0.14 average, it’s CBS’s lowest-rated show outside of Saturday newsmagazine 48 Hours, and things don’t get much better for it in multiplatform ratings. It leaps only ahead of two unscripted shows (and likely NCIS: Sydney, which CBS did not provide MP+7 ratings for), with 5.1 million viewers in MP+7. It’s one of the few shows on CBS to more than double its same-day viewership in MP+7, but that’s mostly just because it was so low-rated to begin with. Its delayed gains are still among the five worst gains on CBS (The Neighborhood is the only scripted show definitively adding fewer viewers). In other words: this show is a flop. We know that from linear ratings, and the multiplatform ratings did not provide ant sort of reprieve for this show. It is the CBS show most clearly at risk this season, and it always has been. Its only hope is a major resurgence if moved behind Y: Marshals, and every recent development on the CIA front makes it more and more likely that Watson won’t ever be moving off of Monday nights this season. Even if it were to see a major boost in that slot, CBS knows its true strength, and it’s unlikely they’re going to give it another chance. It’s still a likely cancellation.
NCIS: Sydney: This is a peculiar one, and it always has been. It’s obviously an international production, which means the ball is not entirely in CBS’s court here. They like have influence on the show’s fate, but won’t single-handedly decide whether to air another season. They can, however, single-handedly decided not to air one. Its ratings are not justifying taking up a slot on CBS’s schedule full-time. It’s their second-lowest-rated show in L+SD data, and it’s the only show that we don’t have multiplatform data on. We even have multiplatform data for 60 Minutes and 48 Hours, but not for NCIS: Sydney. CBS would’ve surely bragged about it if it had any sort of an impressive showing. We know for sure that its streaming performance is weak, as it’s one of the few CBS scripted shows to never have charted on there in the last two seasons. The show struggles in L+SD ratings, and while we’ve not been provided multiplatform ratings, the lack of ratings on that front is unlikely to be a positive indicator of its delayed performance. This show doesn’t have much of an audience, and what little audience it does have mostly seems to come from airing behind fellow NCIS series. While it’s incredibly cheap, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see how CBS brings back a show that’s found no sort of loyal audience. It still leans cancellation.
The TV Ratings Guide
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:00
Mon
The Neighborhood
DMV
FBI
Watson
Tues
NCIS
NCIS: Origins
NCIS: Sydney
Wed
Survivor
The Amazing Race
Thurs
Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage
Ghosts
Matlock
Elsbeth
Fri
Sheriff Country
Fire Country
Boston Blue
Sun
Tracker
The Road
Encores
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
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