Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s action at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, including Carlos Alcaraz’s showdown with Taylor Fritz.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals
1pt Taylor Fritz to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 18/5 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
1pt Alex de Minaur over 2.5 breaks of serve v Lorenzo Musetti at 10/11 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz (1300 GMT)
Given how the 2025 season has unfolded, many – including the bookies – are expecting an Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner final in Turin.
However, I’ve written in recent days about how Alcaraz might not be able to keep his side of the bargain.
The Spaniard has never enjoyed great success in the post-US Open period, while indoors he simply hasn’t been able to replicate the results he’s enjoyed on outdoor hardcourts; he has only one indoor title on his CV.
I wasn’t prepared to take him on in his opening match on Sunday when he beat Alex de Minaur in straight sets. The Australian lacks big weapons but still put up a decent fight in a first set which saw Alcaraz produce a lot of errors, particularly off his forehand wing.
He did improve as the match wore on but any Alcaraz contest is assured to have some spectacular points, so if you only watched the highlights reel, don’t be fooled into thinking it was a sparkling display by the top seed.
Fritz brings much more to the table with his big serve capable of winning cheap points, while his ground game was in excellent working order against Lorenzo Musetti on Monday. He was brutal on anything short, rarely looked threatened on serve and got stuck into virtually every Musetti service game.
Asked about conditions afterwards, Fritz said they “rewarded” aggressive tennis, adding “this is a good court for me”.
He showed that last year with his run to the final and I think he can cause Alcaraz problems.
Admittedly, the head-to-head record shows Alcaraz 4-1 up (3-1 on hard), although it’s 1-1 indoors with Fritz dominant in their meeting at the Laver Cup in September.
Some won’t read too much into that but I’d suggest it will definitely help him in terms of confidence heading into this rematch.
I’m not going to be put off by that record. I feel this is a good chance to test the theory that this isn’t really Alcaraz’s time of year or conditions and Fritz looks in good shape to capitalise.
A small bet at a chunky price is advised.
Lorenzo Musetti v Alex de Minaur (1930 GMT)
All the fears that Musetti would be coming to this tournament jaded and unable to perform at his best level were realised on Monday.
He struggled to deal with Taylor Fritz, although the American looked like he’d be a handful for most players given his performance.
However, the issues for Musetti were clear. He was regularly rubbing his legs, presumably trying to liven up the muscles which have seen an awful lot of work in recent weeks – remember it was only on Saturday that he was playing a three-hour final in Athens.
Most concerning for Musetti was how easily Fritz got into his service games – seven of nine went to deuce.
De Minaur is one of the best returners on the tour – he’s ranked third for return games won – and that has to be a worry for the home fans. He’s also one of the best defenders and will be more than happy to play out long rallies in a bid to grind Musetti down and add to his fatigue levels.
Previous meetings actually sit 3-1 in Musetti’s favour, although De Minaur has won the only hardcourt clash, while the stats show he’s also been able to deal with Musetti’s serve well.
The Australian, who is around 4/9 to win the match, has broken serve no fewer than 19 times in their four matches and that’s a potential angle here.
De Minaur is 10/11 for over 2.5 breaks with bet365.
He broke the Alcaraz serve twice on Sunday and there’s every chance Musetti is still jaded – he’s being asked to play his sixth match in seven days, across two cities.
The counter-argument is that conditions are fairly quick, while Musetti was actually only broken twice despite his struggles on serve against Fritz.
That said, he won’t save 10 break points in a match too often and I’d suggest that if De Minaur is able to create those chances – and I think he may well do – then he’ll have a better conversion rate.
Posted at 2025 GMT on 10/11/25
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