Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s action at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, including Jannik Sinner v Alex Zverev.
Ben Shelton v Felix Auger-Aliassime (1300 GMT)
I can’t have Shelton at 4/7 to win Wednesday’s opening match in Turin.
He was well beaten by Alex Zverev on Sunday when his second serve was taken apart (just 24% of points won), while he struggled on return, failing to create a single break point.
That defeat took his record against the top 10 this season to 2-8, both wins coming during a dream week in Toronto.
At this point, it’s worth mentioning the pair’s only previous meeting which came at Roland Garros last season. While some will question its relevance, given it was played on clay, the big takeaway from it was that Shelton didn’t create a break point that day either as he lost 6-4 6-2 6-1.
For me, that’s not a good sign given that was a much slower surface than this.
Auger-Aliassime, hardly renowned for his ability on clay, has been serving well during his recent run of 22 wins from 28 matches and that can’t bode well for Shelton, whose form has been much more patchy since he suffered an injury at the US Open.
The latest of those 28 matches was lost on Monday to Jannik Sinner, the Italian now being responsible for three of the six defeats in that spell, although FAA was highly competitive in the first set.
His display was far from a disgrace and Shelton’s returns will not pose anywhere near the same threat and I doubt his serve will either, especially when the first delivery doesn’t go in.
The elephant in the room here is that Auger-Aliassime needed treatment on a calf problem during his match with Sinner and he faded in the second set after the problem emerged.
Afterwards he said he was “not too worried” and practised as scheduled on Tuesday, hitting serves at what appeared to be full pelt.
It’s always a bit of a risk backing a player who has shown injury signs in his previous match but, given the prices, I think Auger-Aliassime is worth a small try.
Jannik Sinner v Alex Zverev (1930 GMT)
Not for the first time, I was left with egg on my face when previewing the recent Paris Masters semi-final between these two.
I had talked up Zverev’s chances of keeping things close only to see him lose 6-0 6-1.
However, there was a reason for that scoreline – Zverev’s ankle had swollen up overnight following a fall in his quarter-final win. “I couldn’t really move properly at all,” said Zverev. In hindsight, he probably shouldn’t have played.
There’s not much you can do but suck it up when previews go like that but the points raised in that piece remain relevant for this rematch.
Zverev has been able to cause Sinner regular problems when they have met. He’s down only 5-4 on the head-to-head and has managed to win at least a set in seven of the nine matches.
It’s worth recalling another recent meeting – the Vienna final last month – which was incredibly tight, Sinner eventually winning 7-5 in the third set.
Conditions here suit Zverev’s game and his serve was firing during his victory over Ben Shelton on Sunday – 81% first serves in, 84% first serves won and 70% second serves won.
Clearly those numbers won’t be sustained against the world number one and defending champion but I’d still expect Zverev to prove hard to break.
The same can be said of Sinner – like Zverev, he didn’t face a break point in his opening group match. He’s now lost serve only twice in his last six matches in Turin.
So, while Zverev to win a set is certainly worth considering at around 13/8, those strong serves make odds of 19/10 about a tie-break in the match look big and that’s my preference.
There were only three breaks in three sets in that Vienna final and it’s faster here in Turin.
That match didn’t actual feature a breaker but five of the nine previous meetings have.
This price – and the 17/4 about a first-set tie-break – just looks out.
Posted at 1910 GMT on 11/11/25
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