Hong Kong
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It is an image that just a year ago would have seemed unfathomable: the Canadian and Chinese leaders standing side by side, shaking hands and grinning.
Ties between the two countries cratered in 2018 when Canadian police arrested Chinese technology executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on US fraud charges. Days later, Beijing locked up two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on spying charges that Canada slammed as bogus. (Kovrig and Spavor were released nearly three years later after the US dropped the extradition request for Meng).
The diplomatic tussle soured the relationship and engendered a deep mistrust between Ottawa and Beijing. But as President Donald Trump escalates his trade war with one of the US’s closest allies, Canada has looked to a longtime foe for some common ground.
The tide began turning early last month, when Canada’s top diplomat Anita Anand visited Beijing to meet with her counterpart Wang Yi. Then, Prime Minister Mark Carney and leader Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in South Korea – the first time leaders of the two countries had met in eight years.
That 40-minute meeting marked a “turning point” for Canada and China as they pledged to improve ties and collaborate on trade, according to a Canadian statement following the meeting, which also said Carney planned to visit Xi in China.
That discussion has since been followed by another ministerial visit to China, and high-level phone calls. China also reinstated Canada to its approved travel list for tour groups, in a move that’s expected to boost tourism for the North American country.
But as leaders in Ottawa and Beijing signal it may be time to start doing business again, some experts warn China could be attempting to exploit Canada at a vulnerable moment.
China wants to drive a “big wedge between Canada and the US,” said Kovrig, who has continued his work as senior adviser for the Crisis Group since being released from Chinese detention.
“The last thing China wants is a strong and united West trying to constrain China’s global ambitions.”
Both sides have economic incentives to get along.
Last year, Canada slapped a 100% tax on Chinese electric vehicles, in conjunction with the US, to protect its domestic market what it cited as unfair competition from state-subsidized Chinese carmakers.
Then, in March, China announced retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, including a 100% levy on canola oil and meal. In August, China added a 75.8% tariff on canola seed, hurting Canadian farmers and effectively shutting Canada’s second-largest market for the crop.
Meanwhile, the US has increasingly ramped up its economic war on its northern neighbor. Trade negotiations between Trump and Carney had appeared to be making progress when Trump abruptly halted talks again last month after a controversial anti-tariff ad by the government of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province.
With the US now emerging as Canada’s biggest economic threat, Canada can no longer afford to be in a trade war with the world’s two largest economies. To many, that’s made China a more appealing prospect.
Canada’s tone towards China has taken a “180-degree shift” in recent months, said Lynette Ong, director of the China Governance Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs.
“What we have seen so far is an articulation of a kind of different set of intentions towards China … and the intention to rethink our relationship with China quite fundamentally,” Ong said. “That’s a big shift that’s born out of necessity.”
Doug Ford, premier of Ontario and one of Trump’s most vocal critics north of the border, called on Canada to improve its relationship with China, during a meeting of the country’s premiers in July.
Beijing has said it will drop the canola tariffs if Ottawa does the same for Chinese electric vehicles.
The “enemy of our enemy is our friend, and I don’t consider Americans the enemy, but right now President Trump himself is acting like the enemy,” Ford said, according to the Canadian Press news agency.
Public sentiment seems to agree. Recent opinion polling found Canadians are more likely to say the US (46%) should be treated as a threat than China (34%). However, most Canadians still view China negatively.
“The clear strategy here is when you’re shut out of your major export market and being subject to pretty punitive tariffs in some key sectors … you’re going to be looking for other dance partners,” said Fen Hampson, chancellor’s professor at Carleton University in the Canadian capital.
Still, Ottawa risks isolating Washington further if it aligns itself with Beijing, Hampson said.
“It’s a bit of a Rubik’s cube here that leadership is dealing with.”
Driving a wedge between the US and its allies
Facing pressure to boost China’s exports, Xi has warmed to Western nations and other US allies in a way he hasn’t in the past eight years, Ong said.
“He’s a lot more relaxed. He could joke with the president of South Korea about backdoor technology,” she added, referring to a rare candid moment between Xi and President Lee Jae Myung at APEC last month.
Since Trump returned to the White House, China has taken a more “conciliatory and flexible approach to its foreign policy,” said Brian Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong.
Wong said Chinese officials have been “adopting postures that are not just propelled by a desire to show strength, but also to build goodwill amongst long-standing partners or allies to the US who may feel alienated by Washington’s erratic, capricious, and at times duplicitous moves in recent months.”
Beijing will have been watching developments between Ottawa and Washington closely and recognized that “the antagonism between the two long-standing economic partners could be more than skin deep,” Wong said.
While some experts see opportunities for Canada to re-engage China, others urge caution.
There may be a way for Canada to serve its interests by acting as a sort of “middle ground” between the US and China, Ong said.
“There are certain things that Canada is well-positioned to do because of its geographical position,” she added.
Xi’s public embrace of Carney will have sent a message to the top-down Chinese bureaucracy that it’s okay to do business with Canada again, Kovrig said, adding it’s no longer in China’s interest for Canada to be in the “doghouse.”
But any cooperation will come with conditions, Kovrig said.
“China is trying to condition access to senior leaders and political cooperation … on respecting what China calls its core interests,” he said, including on Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims as its own, adding China will want to silence any criticism from Canada over its human rights record.
Hampson said this should be a message to the White House to “tread carefully” and consider the longer-term geopolitical implications of its trade policy.
“If you stop recognizing your economic relationships with your closest neighbors and trading partners, don’t be surprised if they start hedging their bets by doing business and striking deals with your principal geopolitical rival.”
