Julian Edlow breaks down his top player prop for Jets vs. Patriots on TNF.
After weeks of trying to figure out why the Patriots simply refused to grow TreVeyon Henderson’s role within the offense, it appears the time has finally come. New England invested a second-round pick in the speedster from Ohio State, but only gave him double digit carries once in his first seven games. Henderson has now broken that mark in three consecutive games, and could be in line for his largest workload yet on TNF.
Henderson popped three games ago against Cleveland’s elite run defense, turning 10 carries into 75 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson only managed 34 yards on his 14 rushing attempts. Stevenson has been sidelined since, and we’ve seen the rookie handle 14 carries in each of his last two games. With Stevenson already ruled out for Thursday, expect to see plenty of Henderson again — he’s played a career-high 51 snaps in each of his last two games, and his 84% share of the snaps on Sunday was also a career-best.
Henderson had a tougher time against Atlanta’s front, managing 55 rushing yards, but had his breakout game on Sunday in Tampa. Henderson ripped off a pair of long touchdowns, finishing with a 14147-2 line against a Bucs’ defense that ranks top-five in the NFL, even after Henderson’s performance.
Mike Vrabel has come out and said we can expect to see a “big load” of the backfield work go to Henderson on TNF against the Jets. New York will represent by far the best matchup Henderson has seen significant work against. The Jets rank 25th in the NFL, surrendering over 130 rushing yards per game, and that number jumps north of 156 per game over the last three outings.
Look for Henderson to be featured in this one, with a tremendous game script opportunity as a double-digit home favorite on a short week in a plus matchup. This could be a fun one to also look at some alternate numbers and build SGPs around.
NFL Player Prop: TreVeyon Henderson OVER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
If you liked the data used in this article, check out the NFL Player Prop Tools on DraftKings Network. Our NFL Consistency Sheets provide all of this information for you, and is set up in an easy way to use to do your research and create your own bets.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
