Bihar has delivered its verdict, and it is loud enough for the rest of India to hear. The NDA has swept back to power with a humungous mandate, the RJD-led Mahaghatbandhan has crumbled, and one man who believed he was about to reshape Bihar’s politics has been brought right down to earth.
Prashant Kishor, once the most sought-after strategist in Indian elections, a man who moved between parties like a seasoned surgeon finally stepped into the arena himself. He founded Jan Suraaj, built a narrative, went on a padayatra across the state, claimed that Nitish Kumar and the JDU would be wiped out, and assured his followers that a silent wave was building in his favour. The message was bold, the confidence was infectious, and for a while it felt as if he truly believed the numbers he kept predicting.
But Bihar did not believe him back.
Jan Suraaj contested almost every seat in the state. As counting began, the party barely held a single lead. By evening even that disappeared. The grand promise of becoming a third force collapsed completely. For a man who once helped others win elections, his first attempt at winning one for himself ended with a vote share so thin that even the exit polls that predicted his rise now look like fiction.
And hidden inside that humiliation is a lesson, and it is a lesson that new entrant Vijay cannot ignore.
Vijay carries the hopes of lakhs of first-time voters, young people who see in him a leader who is honest, straightforward, and untainted by the usual political grime. His journey into politics is fresh, full of excitement, and full of risk. And because it is new, it is vulnerable. Bihar shows us that no politician, however popular or charismatic, can survive bad judgement in choosing the people around him.
That brings us to the inner circle that surrounds him, especially people like Aadhav Arjuna.
Remember, when Aadhav Arjuna brought Prashant Kishor to the TVK event, set up things, hinted at a partnership, and built the perception that PK would be an ally – strategically or politically? Well, we do not know what it was about. But then suddenly, it was declared that TVK was not interested in any seat-sharing arrangement nor will there be any partnership between the two. Overnight, the entire narrative he had created was dismantled. It left observers wondering what the plan even was, and whether there was a plan at all.
Aadhav has jumped from DMK to VCK to TVK with a trail of controversy wherever he went. He brought Prashant Kishor to the Chennai event, boasted of an alliance possibility, and then publicly backtracked. Even now, there are whispers in TN political circle – some calling him a mole, a DMK plant, others calling him an opportunist, almost all agreeing that he is unpredictable. And Vijay, in his trusting nature, has put enormous responsibility on him.
Vijay may trust easily. But politics is no place for easy trust.
If Bihar teaches us anything, it is this: leaders fall not because they lose popularity, but because they place faith in the wrong shoulders.
Nitish Kumar tightened his alliance. BJP went into the election with discipline. And PK misread everything – he believed the crowds, not the hard numbers. Vijay cannot afford that mistake. Tamil Nadu’s political street is unforgiving; one wrong advisor, one wrong calculation, and even the biggest star can find himself in the middle of nowhere, orphaned, wondering where things began to slip.
Prashant Kishor’s duck on debut is not just a number; it is a warning. Popularity alone is not enough. Strategies have to be grounded, not built on ego or wishful thinking. And surrounding yourself with people who have a history of constantly shifting their loyalties will only ensure that your own footing becomes unsteady.
Vijay still has time. His movement is young. His credibility is intact. But he must be sharper about the people who whisper strategies into his ear. He must recognise that some people enter a movement to build it, and others enter it to use it.
Bihar has shown us that even the smartest strategist can crash when he believes his own hype. Vijay does not need to repeat that story. He can write a very different one if he learns from this moment, and if he chooses his companions with the caution that true leadership demands.
Because a hero becomes a leader not by winning applause, but by refusing to let the wrong people steer the journey.
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