Andrew Asquith picks out four horses who will relish likely testing conditions at Cheltenham this weekend.
Jubilee Express – 13:10 Cheltenham (Saturday)
Sam Thomas is a trainer in red hot form at present, operating at a remarkable 54% strike rate since the 1st of October, while four of his seven runners (at the time of writing) in November have won.
He has three runners at Cheltenham on Saturday, but one who will relish forecast conditions is Jubilee Express, who goes in the Debenhams Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase.
Jubilee Express is a lightly-raced eight-year-old, who has just one win over hurdles and the same over fences to his name, but they came on ground that Timeform described as either soft or heavy.
He also made an excellent reappearance last season when runner-up to Val Dancer in the Welsh National at Chepstow, where he went close to landing some good support. Jubilee Express wasn’t in the same form in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on his only other start last season, but he faced a stiff task that day, racing from 8lb out of the weights, and he’s better judged on his previous efforts.
This represents a much easier task, and he will be very much at home in testing conditions, so he looks interesting from a mark just 3lb higher than his excellent effort in the Welsh National.
Over the last five seasons, Williams’ strike rate on heavy ground is 19% and 15% on soft, so she has a fair record with her horses when the mud is flying, and all five of Hunter Legend’s wins over fences have come on either soft or heavy ground.
His first win came from a lowly mark of 102 at Lingfield in March la
st year, but he has progressed well since, and he looked better than ever when scoring by seven lengths at Bangor from a mark of 122 when last seen in April.
That was a welcome winner at the time for a yard who didn’t enjoy the best spring, and the manner in which he cruised clear from two out suggests he has even more to offer. That performance was also backed up by an excellent timefigure for the grade, and a subsequent 7lb rise looks fair with that in mind.
Williams’ saddled Djelo to make a winning return in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last month, and with conditions sure to suit Hunter Legend, he makes a fair bit of appeal for all this will be his sternest test to date.
Nassalam – 14:55 Cheltenham (Sunday)
A quick look at Nassalam’s recent form figures doesn’t make him an enticing betting proposition, given he’s been pulled up in four of his last five starts.
However, his handicap mark is in freefall, and he’s a much better horse in testing conditions. His last success came in most impressive fashion when a wide-margin winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow in 2023 in what were attritional conditions.
Nassalam sluiced through the mud on that occasion, his performance hard to comprehend given he just kept moving further and further clear with the minimum of fuss while his rivals in behind looked legless.
His previous best efforts all came on ground that was labelled soft or heavy by Timeform and it would be no surprise if he were to turn a corner now back under more suitable conditions. Interestingly, the blinkers now return, and he’s entitled to strip fitter for his comeback run.
Knickerbockerglory – 15:30 Cheltenham (Sunday)
The Dan Skelton-trained Knickerbockerglory has an excellent record when fresh, and also goes particularly well in testing conditions, so he’s one to look out for in this year’s renewal of the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.
He has won first time up for the last three seasons, impressive when making all 12 months ago in a heavy-ground handicap at Sandown, beating Nemean Lion by eight lengths.
That is solid form, given that rival went on to win his next three starts in some competitive races, notably the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell, and Knickerbockerglory held his form well thereafter in races run on ground which was probably faster than ideal.
He is usually ridden positively, which is no bad thing when the ground turns testing at Cheltenham and, while there are plenty of others who like to go forward, Knickerbockerglory remains on a competitive mark. Furthermore, the promising Freddie Keighley takes off a valuable 7lb.
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