A game that was setting up to be a statement performance from the All Blacks, where they could use the second half to give a full demonstration of their strike power, went badly off course with the concession of 17 points.
There appeared to be a severe case of mental paralysis across the playing group, which meant there was a collective inability to stop Scotland’s momentum and derail what felt like a runaway juggernaut.
Head coach Scott Robertson, in naming his team to play England, acknowledged that while his troops were briefed about the possibility/probability of Scotland enjoying a period of momentum and had strategised ways to counter it, it took too long for the All Blacks to wrestle back control.
A dropped kick-off by Peter Lakai to open the half seemed to lead to a series of compound errors that included game management mistakes, skill execution inaccuracies and ill-discipline, with Ardie Savea and Wallace Sititi yellow-carded.
It was all a bit of a horror show, but the concern for the All Blacks, is that while Edinburgh was the most extreme case, it was by no means a statistical anomaly.
The numbers tell a damning story that the third quarter has been a blackspot for the All Blacks this year, and the stage of almost every test at which they have lost their way.
In their 11 tests to date, their points differential in the third quarter is minus 50. They have scored 28 points in total between minutes 41-60 but conceded 78 – figures that make it apparent how vulnerable the All Blacks have been once the game restarts after halftime.
It’s hard to understand why they have become so prone to suffering these prolonged mental lapses in the third quarter, but only twice this year – against France in Hamilton and Australia at Eden Park – have they scored more points in those 20 minutes than they have conceded.
In Edinburgh they conceded 17, scored zero; against South Africa in Wellington they conceded 10, scored zero; and in their two tests against Argentina they conceded seven and scored none in the first test (which they won), and conceded 10, scored zero in the second (which they lost).
To further illustrate the difficulties the All Blacks have endured after halftime, their points differential is positive in the other three quarters – plus 32 in the first, plus 60 in the second and plus 27 in the fourth.
What deepens the concern is that these numbers in 2025 are a continuation of what happened last year – where the All Blacks’ points differential was plus 49 in the first quarter, plus 89 in the second, plus 27 in the fourth, and minus four in the third.
All sorts of theories can be offered to explain the problem. Do the All Blacks have a collective issue mentally re-setting after halftime, which creates this cycle where mistakes compound and panic sets in?
Do the numbers hint at there being some issue around when to use the bench? Are some players coming on too early or not early enough?
Or are there persistent game management failings in that period where the All Blacks don’t get their balance right between run, pass, kick?
There is certainly some kind of persistent failing, which partly explains why Robertson was so keen to get captain Scott Barrett back for the Twickenham clash, where his 87 test caps are equal to the total of Fabian Holland, Simon Parker, Peter Lakai, Cam Roigard, Quinn Tupaea, Billy Proctor, Leroy Carter and Leicester Fainga’anuku combined.
Barrett’s experience and leadership qualities will be invaluable in the quest to ensure the All Blacks don’t fall into the same trap of being powerless to stop an English momentum surge.
The All Blacks finally found a way back into the game at Murrayfield when they focused on nothing more than completing one task successfully, and then resetting to pull off another.
It was that simple for them and having Barrett back gives them a hardened leader who knows the importance of little moments and how to string together a series of wins to change momentum flows.
It’s also why Parker has been brought back to start at blindside and Sititi restored to the bench.
The larger-framed Parker is the sort of high-work rate defender who can handle the volume of tackles required to make it hard for England to get a roll on the way the Scots did, and Sititi can inject ball-carrying punch and a higher tempo attack at a time when the All Blacks will be looking to change the dynamic.
The key to winning against London is staring the All Blacks in the face – they have to come out of the third quarter with a positive points differential, or at least avoid a total meltdown as England, should they sense vulnerability after the break, will be more ruthless at exploiting it than Scotland were.
