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The top of the AAC has been a carousel in 2025.
South Florida, Tulane, Memphis, Navy, ECU and North Texas have essentially passed the buck all season, with the Midshipmen currently holding a slim lead over the pack at 5-1 in conference play.
USF, Tulane, ECU and North Texas are all 4-1, however, and the Bulls will visit the Mids on Saturday afternoon.
The winner of USF vs. Navy should be in the driver’s seat for a spot in the conference title game, and could have a chance of claiming the Group of 5’s bid in the College Football Playoff if James Madison slips.
USF vs. Navy odds, prediction
Everything was clicking for Navy until the Midshipmen took a trip to Denton to take on North Texas. The high-flying Mean Green are a brutal matchup for the Mids, and it showed in the 31-17 scoreline.
A trip to South Bend one week later, without star quarterback Blake Horvath, was the opposite of what the doctor ordered for Navy.
USF kicker Nico Gramatica. Getty Images
Things won’t get any easier for the Mids against No. 24 South Florida (7-2, 4-1), but the betting market does seem to be getting carried away here.
South Florida sits as a 10.5-point favorite against Navy, which would suggest that this line would be USF -16.5 on a neutral field. With Horvath expected to play, that seems egregious.
The Bulls are capable of lighting up a scoreboard, and Navy is not a good defensive team, but the Midshipmen have been one of the best offenses in the Group of 5 this season.
They are masters at controlling the clock with their triple-option attack.
Betting on College Football?
A slow-moving, clock-eating offense is exactly what you’re hoping for when you’re grabbing north of 10 points with an underdog in college football.
South Florida’s only two losses this season came against Miami and Memphis, but the defense has been vulnerable in other matchups.
The Bulls have conceded just under 26 points per game over their last four contests. If Navy can hit that mark, or come close, it shouldn’t have any issue getting the cover on Senior Day at Annapolis.
The Play: Navy +10.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
