In their own right, the matches between Wales and Japan and Scotland and Argentina may not be the biggest in the eyes of rugby supporters outside of those countries.
However, what happens in Cardiff and Edinburgh this weekend will almost certainly have a significant bearing on what the draw for Rugby World Cup 2027 looks like when it takes place in Sydney on 3 December.
Starting with Band 1 – reserved for teams ranked first to sixth, Argentina are in pole position to avoid being in the same pool as previous champions South Africa, New Zealand and England.
They are the sixth-ranked nation and know that a win over Scotland will almost certainly secure them a spot in Band 1. To stand any chance of replacing them in the top six, Scotland need to beat the Pumas by 16 points or more, which they achieved the last time the teams met at Murrayfield in November 2022 (52-29), and hope that England don’t beat the All Blacks by the same convincing margin.
Even then, Scotland would be 0.06 points behind Argentina in the rankings, meaning they’d need England to beat the Pumas, and subsequently reduce their rating the following weekend. Scotland have another match to play themselves, against Tonga on Sunday week, but no points will be awarded to them for beating a side well down the rankings. Scotland will replace Australia in seventh with a win, as long as the Wallabies lose to Ireland in Dublin, while a big result for the Wallabies puts them right back in the mix for Band 1.
As for Gregor Townsend, the important thing is to win the game, the calculators can come out later. “I think it would be great to be in the top six, but not being in the top six is not as much of an issue as it has been in recent years with all the second-place teams qualifying and a couple of third-place teams. The importance [of the Argentina game] is we play well, we build on our performance last week and we get the win,” he said.
It’s highly unlikely given the results that need to happen, but there is still a doomsday scenario for France, which would see the last tournament hosts drop out of the top six for the first time since January 2020. For this to happen, Les Bleus would need to be beaten by Fiji by 16 points or more in tandem with an Argentina victory in Scotland. This would also put Fiji, who are ranked ninth back in the mix for top six, something they have never achieved before.
Meanwhile, down in Cardiff, whoever wins between Wales and Japan will find themselves ranked high enough to be in Band 2. Wales currently occupy 12th spot but the marginal difference between the teams will be wiped out if the Brave Blossoms win. With Japan still to play Georgia, who face Canada this weekend, and Wales entertaining visits from New Zealand and South Africa in the coming weeks, it won’t be a complete fait accompli for Eddie Jones’ side if they lose.
Bands 3 and 4 are slightly complicated by the fact that it is not yet known whether Samoa will take their place in Australia. As the team ranked 17th, Samoa will be in Band 3 if they come out on top in next Tuesday’s winner-takes-all qualification shootout with Belgium. However, the team ranked 19th will be pulled into Band 3 if they miss out.
