World Rugby rankings: How Rassie Erasmus’ gamble could backfire with All Blacks ready to pounce

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World Rugby rankings: How Rassie Erasmus' gamble could backfire with All Blacks ready to pounce

Rassie Erasmus’ gamble could backfire in more ways than one with the All Blacks able to usurp the Springboks should they succumb to Italy this weekend.

South Africa have named a much-changed outfit, with no out-and-out reserve hooker, from the team that superbly defeated France in Saint-Denis last weekend, despite playing with 14 men for half of the match.

They increased their buffer at the summit of the World Rugby rankings in the process, but that good work will be undone if their rotated squad succumb to an in-form Azzurri on Saturday.

Gonzalo Quesada’s men got the better of the Wallabies last weekend and will look to take the scalp of another southern hemisphere giant in the form of the Boks.

Should that happen in the early kick-off, the tourists will lose at least two rankings points, which would put them behind the All Blacks heading into the game at Twickenham later on Saturday.

The impact of England v All Blacks

Of course, Scott Robertson’s men would still have to do the job and defeat an England side on a nine-match winning streak, but any sort of result in London would be enough to move ahead of South Africa if Erasmus’ men lose.

Even if the Boks win, New Zealand can close the gap to 0.25 with a victory by more than 15 points at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham.

As for Steve Borthwick’s side, they are unable to move above the All Blacks, even with a dominant triumph, but they can go into third ahead of Ireland with any sort of win.

England v All Blacks prediction: Steve Borthwick’s men to ‘get revenge’ over New Zealand in win that ‘lays down a marker’

That is because the Irish cannot earn any points for their game against the Wallabies due to Australia’s current tally and the fact it takes place in Dublin.

It could be a big weekend for Joe Schmidt’s men, though, who are in a battle for sixth, which would make them one of the top seeds for the Rugby World Cup.

A victory would put Australia right back in contention and could even see them leap above Argentina in the standings, depending on what Los Pumas do against Scotland.

With the World Cup draw looming at the start of next month, it is another significant round of internationals with the Scots in eighth and Fiji in ninth, who take on a frustrated France, also looking to make a late surge for the top-six.

Les Bleus look relatively safe in fifth at the moment but a shock loss to the Pacific Islanders would put their position under significant threat ahead of the match with the Wallabies next weekend.

ITALY (10) 78.98 v SOUTH AFRICA (1) 93.06

Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 80.98, South Africa 91.06
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 81.98, South Africa 90.06
Draw – Italy 79.98, South Africa 92.06
South Africa win by 15 points or less – Italy 78.98, South Africa 93.06 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – Italy 78.98, South Africa 93.06 (No change)

ENGLAND (4) 88.06 v NEW ZEALAND (2) 91.35

England win by 15 points or less – England 89.09, New Zealand 90.33
England win by more than 15 points – England 89.60, New Zealand 89.81
Draw – England 88.09, New Zealand 91.33
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – England 87.09, New Zealand 92.33
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – England 86.60, New Zealand 92.81

WALES (12) 73.57 v JAPAN (13) 73.25

Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 74.23, Japan 72.58
Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 74.57, Japan 72.24
Draw – Wales 73.23, Japan 73.58
Japan win by 15 points or less – Wales 72.23, Japan 74.58
Japan win by more than 15 points – Wales 71.57, Japan 75.24

IRELAND (3) 88.85 v AUSTRALIA (7) 81.69

Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.85, Australia 81.69 (No change)
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 88.85, Australia 81.69 (No change)
Draw – Ireland 87.85, Australia 82.69
Australia win by 15 points or less – Ireland 86.85, Australia 83.69
Australia win by more than 15 points – Ireland 85.85, Australia 84.69

FRANCE (5) 86.95 v FIJI (9) 81.15

France win by 15 points or less – France 87.07, Fiji 81.02
France win by more than 15 points – France 87.13, Fiji 80.97
Draw – France 86.07, Fiji 82.03
Fiji win by 15 points or less – France 85.07, Fiji 83.03
Fiji win by more than 15 points – France 84.13, Fiji 83.97

SCOTLAND (8) 81.21 v ARGENTINA (6) 84.30

Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 82.22, Argentina 83.30
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 82.73, Argentina 82.79
Draw – Scotland 81.22, Argentina 84.30
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Scotland 80.22, Argentina 85.30
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Scotland 79.73, Argentina 85.79