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Wales vs Japan: rugby union predictions, team news, betting tips and odds

Wales vs Japan date, start time & TV info 

Date Saturday, November 15
Starts 5.40pm
Venue Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Competition Autumn international
TV TNT Sports 1

With the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup taking place on December 3, 12th-ranked Wales and 13th-ranked Japan are vying for a spot in pot two.

They clash on Saturday in their third meeting of the year after sharing a series 1-1 in July.

A win at the Principality Stadium could have wide-ranging ramifications and Wales should have enough to secure only their second victory in 21 Tests, and first in Cardiff since 2023.

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Wales vs Japan betting tips & predictions

Best bet

Wales to win by one to 12 points
1pt 8-5 bet365

Dewi Lake anytime tryscorer
2pts 6-4 bet365, Hills

Wales vs Japan preview 

A heavy loss and an injury to captain Jac Morgan that may rule him out of the Six Nations aside, there were positives to emerge from Wales’ 52-28 defeat to Argentina.

That’s where Welsh rugby is at the moment, with only one Test win in their last 20 internationals.

However, that sole success came against Saturday’s visitors to Cardiff, Japan, who were beaten 33-21 in Kobe a week after Wales had suffered a 24-19 defeat in Kitakyushu.

Steve Tandy has taken over since then and is clearly focused on a positive message.

With New Zealand and South Africa still to visit this month, beating the Brave Blossoms is Wales’ best shot at any optimism.

Japan have been busy since the sides’ July meetings, losing 33-27 to Fiji in the final of the Pacific Nations Cup and pushing Australia close in a 19-15 defeat.

They were then demolished 61-7 by South Africa but had some decent moments in last Saturday’s 41-10 loss to an out-of-sorts Ireland side.

Even if the Irish struggled, they are still levels above the Welsh. However, the hosts have good players, particularly hooker Dewi Lake, who leads the side in Morgan’s absence.

Lake burrowed over for a try against Argentina and his power and leadership could be decisive in a fixture between two well matched teams who sit 12th and 13th in the world rankings and are vying for a place in pot two for December 3’s Rugby World Cup draw.

Wales can win, but it might be closer than Tandy, Lake, and the Cardiff crowd desire.

Wales’s November Schedule

DateOpponentsVenue09/11/2025Argentina (52-28)Principality Stadium, CardiffSaturdayJapanPrincipality Stadium, Cardiff22/11/2025New ZealandPrincipality Stadium, Cardiff​​​​29/11/2025South AfricaPrincipality Stadium, CardiffScroll >>> table to view

Key stats for Wales vs Japan

♦Wales’ win over Japan in July is their only victory in 20 Tests
♦Four of the last five meetings have been decided by nine or fewer points
♦Wales have lost their last ten home fixtures
♦Japan have scored between 18 and 30 points in the last five meetings

Wales vs Japan team news and line-ups

Wales

Wales have made four changes from their defeat to Argentina. Louis Rees-Zammit comes in to make his first international start since returning from the NFL and Dewi Lake takes over as captain following Jac Morgan’s injury.

Starting line-up: 15 Blair Murray; 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Josh Adams; 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams; 1 Nicky Smith, 2 Dewi Lake (capt), 3 Archie Griffin, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 5 Adam Beard, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 8 Olly Cracknell.
Replacements:  16 Liam Belcher, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins. 

Japan

Tighthead prop Keijiro Tamefusa and blindside flanker Jack Cornelsen start as Japan’s only changes from the defeat to Ireland.

Starting line-up: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki; 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada; 10 Lee Seung-sin, 9 Naoto Saito; 1 Kenta Kobayashi, 2 Kenji Sato, 3 Keijiro Tamefusa, 4 Epineri Uluiviti, 5 Warner Dearns (capt), 6 Jack Cornelsen, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 8 Faulua Makisi.
Replacements: 16 Shodai Hirao, 17 Sho Furuhata, 18 Shuhei Takeuchi, 19 Harry Hockings, 20 Tyler Paul, 21 Kenta Fukuda, 22 Shinya Komura, 23 Kazuma Ueda.

Wales vs Japan betting odds

Sign up with bet365 to bet on Wales vs Japan. Here are the latest odds for Saturday’s Cardiff showdown.

MarketOddsWales1-6Japan4-1Draw33-1

Odds correct at time of publishing

Want more top sports betting advice? Make sure you take a look at Racing Post Sport’s tips for more of the latest picks from our experts.

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Read more on the autumn internationals:

England vs New Zealand | Ireland vs Australia 

FAQs for Wales vs Japan

When is the autumn international between Wales vs Japan?

The match kicks off at 5.40pm on Saturday, November 15

Where is Wales vs Japan being played?

The match takes place at the Principality Stadium, Cardiff

What is the match betting for Wales vs Japan?

Wales are 1-6 favourites, with Japan 4-1 and a draw 33-1.

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