In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili meet Saturday at UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+ / FX), followed by the prelims (ESPNews / ESPN+ / Disney+ /FX) at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Zhang odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Shevchenko (25-4-1) | Zhang (26-3-0)
Shevchenko won the belt back on Dec. 2018, and defending it successfully 7 times before losing in a Round 4 submission at UFC 285 against Alexa Grasso. They fought to a draw at Noche UFC in the rematch in Sept. 2023, while topping Grasso via unanimous decision at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC. She also won via unanimous decision at UFC 315 against Manon Fiorit last time out.
Zhang moves up in weight class, looking to take down Shevchenko. He has won 3 straight fights via unanimous decision against Tatiana Suarez, Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos. She has gone the distance in 3 in a row, and 7 of 12 fights at the UFC decision.
The southpaw Shevchenko has a 3.5-inch reach advantage over the Chinese fighter, while Zhang has a 5.15-to-3.14 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. However, Shevchenko is a little more accurate in the category, posting a 69.66% mark to 64.11% for Zhang. They’re both decent in takedown average, and both are similar in submission average, with Zhang at 0.52 and Shevchenko at 0.31.
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UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Zhang odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Shevchenko -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Zhang +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Total rounds: 4.5 rounds (Over -275 | Under +200)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +180)
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Zhang picks and predictions
SHEVCHENKO (-145) is the gold standard, and you can’t be the champ until you beat the champ. She has dominated everyone not named Alexa Grasso.
She’ll use that 3.5-inch reach advantage to push and pull Zhang out at her choosing, avoiding the big blow. Neither fighter will be terribly eager to go to the mat, but if they do, both fighters are pretty even, so nothing should come of that.
Over 4.5 Rounds (-275) is way too expensive, costing nearly 3 times your potential return.
In addition, Yes (-250): Fight to go the distance? is too expensive, too, unless you fold it into a multi-leg parlay of some sort. The best idea is to look to the method of victory and go with SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION (+125) at plus-money.
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