Bettors on prediction betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi seem to be skeptical about the likelihood of $2,000 tariff dividend checks.
Trump’s $2K rebate plan from tariffs could cost double the revenue
President Donald Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate plan could cost $600B yearly, double the revenue tariffs generate.
President Donald Trump has floated the idea of sending $2,000 tariff dividend checks to Americans. Will it happen? You can place your bets.
Bettors on prediction betting sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi seem to be skeptical.
President Trump recently suggested the possibility of checks from tariff revenue. “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” he posted Nov. 9 on Truth Social.
Three days later, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed the president’s support for the dividends when asked about it on Nov. 12. “The White House is committed to making that happen, yes, and we are currently exploring all legal options to get that done,” she said.
Trump broached the idea of a dividend rebate in July saying tariff revenue could lead to “a little rebate but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt.”
The $2,000 payments would be made “to low and middle income USA Citizens,” Trump said Nov. 10 on Truth Social. But taxpayers can be forgiven if they are skeptical of the checks arriving, as this isn’t the first time Trump has suggested giving money to Americans. No checks arose from the president’s consideration in February of stimulus checks funded by expected savings the cost-cutting efforts of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Here’s what bettors on prediction platforms think about the likelihood of $2,000 tariff dividend checks.
What does Polymarket think about the likelihood of tariff dividend checks?
Activity on Polymarket as of Saturday, Nov. 15 suggests users are skeptical about dividend checks being sent to Americans.
The site gives a 7% likelihood for President Trump creating a tariff dividend in 2025, with more than $950,000 in volume. Betting began on Oct. 3 and rose to 17% on Nov. 9, but has fallen since then.
Trump, who had brought up the idea of a tariff dividend for Americans in August, also mentioned the potential dividend checks during an Oct. 2 interview with One America News Network (OAN). “We’ve thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000. It’d be great,” he said.
Polymarket also has another tariff dividend wager suggesting a likelihood of 26% for President Trump to create a tariff dividend by March 31, 2026. That outcome, with wagering initiated on Nov. 9, hit a high of 44% on Nov. 13. But the odds for Yes have fallen since then. Fewer folks are wagering on this outcome, as the volume has surpassed $19,620.
Another wager, started on Nov. 13 and lacking enough activity to have a posted volume, poses the question of whether Americans will get tariff stimulus checks by December 31. The likelihood rested at 6% on Saturday, Nov. 15.
Polymarket activity also suggests skepticism on how big the revenue boost will be from Trump’s tariffs. An active wager on the site about whether the likelihood of tariffs will generating more than $250 billion in 2025 has fallen to 6% from a high of 35% in April, with a volume of more than $931,500.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan nonprofit that studies fiscal policy, has estimated tariff revenue of about $100 billion so far, falling short of the $600 billion needed for an initial round of tariff dividend checks. Non-profit think tank The Tax Foundation estimates that net revenue from Trump’s tariffs would equal about $216 billion in fiscal year 2026, which began Oct. 1.
What does Kalshi think about the likelihood of tariff dividend checks?
Skepticism also rules on Kalshi where users give a 5% chance of checks going out in 2025, on volume of more than $418,000, as of Saturday, Nov. 15. That’s down from a high of 13.4% on Nov. 10, a day after betting began on Nov. 9.
Action on Kalshi also seems to indicate users think the Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs. The likelihood the court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs was at 24% on Saturday, Nov. 15, on volume of more than $1.17 million. That’s down from a high of 58% shortly after action began on Sept. 2.
The Supreme Court heard arguments on Nov. 5 about whether Trump had the power to impose sweeping tariffs on imports rather than Congress. A majority of the justices sounded skeptical of the Trump administration’s arguments.
‘Difficult to tell’
Congress would have to approve the plan and it’s uncertain there’s enough revenue to make the dividend checks viable, said Scott Steinberg, geopolitical futurist and keynote speaker for FutureProof Strategies. “It’s hard to see how the administration would be able to make the math work in practice without putting more parameters on the checks, or how such a windfall for private citizens would leave enough revenue to pay down national debt as the plan is currently envisioned,” he told USA TODAY.
“I’m sure many citizens would love to ease their financial burdens, especially around the holidays and gift giving season, and see money going back in their pockets for once this year instead of the other way around,” Steinberg said. “Still, it’s difficult to tell at this point if there’s a workable way to execute on the concept, especially as initially sketched out – and if we’ll really seen a tangible return in our wallets on overarching policy decisions.”
Contributing: Reuters
Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, X and email him at mikegsnider & @mikegsnider.bsky.social & @mikesnider & msnider@usatoday.com
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