The Netherlands are expected to confirm their place at the 2026 World Cup on Monday when they host Lithuania in their final Group G fixture.
They hold a three-point lead over Poland and enter the last matchday with a goal difference cushion so large that only an extraordinary collapse could dislodge them from the top of the table.
While their 1-1 draw in Warsaw on Friday delayed the formal confirmation of qualification, it did little to shift the overall outlook of a campaign that has remained under Dutch control for months.
Memphis Depay’s quick response early in the second half ensured a point and maintained Oranje’s run of consistency since the summer, even if the performance lacked precision.
They return home with the knowledge that a defeat alone would not be enough to jeopardise top spot unless Poland produce a 13-goal swing in their meeting with Malta.
The Netherlands have avoided defeat in every qualifier, which adds further certainty to the task ahead.
Lithuania have no realistic expectation of troubling the standings. They remain winless in the group and have collected only three points from seven matches.
Narrow margins, sporadic resistance and a lack of creativity have characterised their campaign.
Even a recent friendly draw with Israel did little to change the wider pattern of a team who have now gone 16 matches without a win.
They pushed the Dutch in their first meeting in September, losing 3-2 after a spirited display, but that performance has not translated into sustained progress.
Everything points towards a controlled evening for the Netherlands, who have managed the group with clarity and purpose and now have the chance to close it out with minimal drama.
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Their advantage in points and goal difference offers an additional layer of security, but manager Ronald Koeman will demand a level of focus that ensures there is no invitation for uncertainty.
