Today we have a loaded NFL Week 11 slate on tap with 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
The Texans (4-5) just came back in epic fashion to beat the Jaguars 36-29, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Titans (1-8) just fell to the Chargers 27-20 but managed to cover as 10-point home dogs.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the hefty chalk and they’re happy to fade the Titans, who own the worst record in the NFL.
However, despite receiving 73% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Houston fall from -7.5 to -5.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Houston to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with the Titans plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the ugly home dog.
At DraftKings, the Titans are receiving 27% of spread bets but 37% of spread dollars. At Circa, Tennessee is taking in 51% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home team.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Titans here, are 28-20 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Tennessee has additional value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 322-283 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2019. Road divisional dogs are 198-163 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
The Titans enjoy a rest advantage, as they are coming off a bye while the Texans played the Jaguars and now must travel on the road to Tennessee.
Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 38.5 to 37.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 43% of bets but 70% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 57% to the under historically.
The forecast calls for low 60s with clear skies but also 10 MPH winds.
Outdoor divisional unders are 17-13 (57%) with a 9% ROI this season and 316-265 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
The Bears (6-3) just held off the Giants 24-20 but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (4-5) just came up short against the Ravens 27-19, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Vikings fall from -3 to -2.5 across the market.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have targeted Chicago plus the points.
Chicago has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Divisional dogs are 322-283 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI since 2019. Road divisional dogs are 198-163 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
Those looking to back Chicago would be wise to shop around, as DraftKings and Caesars are both offering Chicago at the key number of +3 (-115) while the rest of the market is down to +2.5.
Bettors could also target Chicago in a wiseguy “Wong Teaser.” By taking the Bears up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
The Lions (6-3) just beat up on the Commanders 44-22, easily covering as 8.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (7-2) just edged the Packers 10-7, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and is happy to grab the points with the road dog.
However, despite 59% of spread bets backing Detroit we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Philadelphia -1.5 to -2.5. In addition, most of the market is juicing up Eagles -2.5 (-115 or -120), signaling further liability on the home favorite and a possible gameday move up to -3.
This indicates sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Eagles, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing the Lions.
At DraftKings, Philadelphia is only receiving 41% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football primetime game.
Jalen Hurts is 11-3 (79%) ATS with a 50% ROI as a short favorite of 3-points or less.
Pros have also looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting the Eagles on the moneyline at -145.
At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in only 25% of spread bets but a whopping 78% of spread dollars, a massive sharp split and further evidence of the Pros out in Vegas backing the unpopular home team to win straight up.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite is 106-41 (72%) straight up with a 7% ROI since 2022. Jalen Hurts is 24-4 (86%) straight up with a 16% ROI as a home favorite in his regular season career.
