Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Houston Texans (PK) @ Tennessee Titans: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Davis Mills getting another start in place of CJ Stroud probably holds this number down a bit, but I’m not so sure it should. It was part of a ridiculous 4th quarter comeback, but the Houston offense looked capable of things I never thought possible for most of the year. The only other time I might have thought that was when they took the Titans to the woodshed in a 26-0 win back in Week 4. So Houston knows how to run it up against the Titans, whom they’ve beaten and covered against the past 4 meetings in Nashville. Just because Tennessee is off a bye doesn’t mean they’re not still a minor league team, and I think Houston comes away with the easy win.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns: 3:25 PM CT on CBS
The Ravens understand the assignment here: keep clawing back into contention with wins over bad teams. Another win here gets them back to .500 on the season, and I don’t think they blow the opportunity. Lamar Jackson doesn’t look completely healthy yet, but he has historically lit it up in Cleveland for 30.4 PPG in 5 visits, so even a significant dropoff from there makes Baltimore very tough to beat in this game. I don’t think it will take much for the rejuvenated Ravens defense to shut down arguably the league’s worst offense, so I’m happy to back Baltimore at this essentially pick-em price.
NFL (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers -2.5 First Half @ Arizona Cardinals (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
Speaking of teams that have revived playoff hopes, the 49ers are right back in the thick of things. They’ll have Mac Jones starting again today, which has been a good thing for this offense in my opinion. He’s already beaten Arizona once this season, importantly covering this exact margin in the first half. Both teams are much different than they were in that early season meeting, with injuries removing Arizona’s top performers at every offensive position from that game to today.
Jacoby Brissett has certainly been serviceable, but I’m leaning on a trend here that should continue, as the Cardinals have gone 1-11 ATS on the first half spread in divisional matchups, including 8 straight. I think a motivated and still dangerous 49ers team jumps on Arizona early here, and I’ll lay the small number in the first half.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
It sure seems like all we see Dan Campbell and Jared Goff do in these situations is win, since they’re 13-3 SU in regular season primetime games. But those 3 losses all came in the underdog role, and they have not had any luck solving Philadelphia. Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are 2-0 against the Campbell/Goff duo, scoring a total of 82 points in those games. What the Eagles desperately need is an offensive outburst, especially with their star receiver whining on every medium possible, so this is the perfect time to see a vulnerable Lions defense come to town. I think Philly figures it out enough here as they’re definitely a team on the rise, and I expect them to cover this short spread.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Pat Friermuth Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kyle Pitts Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 113.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Woody Marks Anytime TD (+125)
0.25 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Caleb Williams Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Cade Otton Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cade Otton Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
0.5 Unit – Ladd McConkey Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 7.5 Receptions (+105)
0.5 Unit – Tyler Higbee Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
0.5 Unit – RJ Harvey Over 69.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-34 (-2.40 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
