This might be the best slate of games the NFL has offered in 2025.
The playoff races are starting to sizzle, and a few divisions could see massive shifts this week. In Los Angeles, the Rams and Seahawks are battling for first place not only in the NFC West but also for at least a share of the top seed in the conference. The AFC West also has a huge matchup, with the Broncos hosting the Chiefs. Denver leads Kansas City by 2.5 games in the division, but the Chiefs have two shots to take down Denver, beginning on Sunday afternoon.
On Sunday night, the Lions visit the Eagles in a game many thought would be the NFC championship game one year ago. Now, Philadelphia is attempting to secure the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2022, while Detroit hopes to get a firmer grip on the NFC North with a win.
But we start in Buffalo, where both the Buccaneers and Bills are coming off losses, hoping to get right against each other.
Sign Up. SI NFL Newsletter. Get MMQB’s Free Newsletter. dark
Spread: Buffalo -5.5
Key matchup: The Bills’ run defense vs. Tampa Bay’s ground game
Key stat: In Bucky Irving’s absence, the Bucs have rushed for 80.4 yards per game
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Running the ball has been the way to beat the Bills this season. In its past two losses to the Falcons and Dolphins, Buffalo has allowed 210 and 197 yards, respectively. In those games, the Bills gave up an average of 6.3 yards per carry, an increase from their league-worst figure of 5.5 YPC.
If the Buccaneers were healthy and had star second-year back Bucky Irving in the backfield, that would pose an enormous issue. However, Irving has missed the past five weeks with toe and shoulder injuries. Although Irving is practicing this week in a limited capacity, it’s unclear whether he’ll play and, if so, how much.
Without Irving in the lineup, Tampa Bay has been unable to run. The Buccaneers have gone 2–3 in his five absences and have yet to rush for 115 yards in any game. They also average a paltry 3.6 YPC, which would rank 31st in the NFL for the season.
Tampa Bay is still without receivers Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin, so it’s all the more important the Buccaneers figure out their rushing attack.
Verderame’s verdict: Buffalo 27, Tampa Bay 24
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was supposed to take a big step under coach Liam Coen this season, but that hasn’t happened. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Spread: L.A. Chargers -3
Key matchup: Trevor Lawrence vs. Jesse Minter
Key stat: Lawrence has a -0.15 EPA per pass on non-blitz downs
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Chargers win, they have a 91% chance of making the playoffs, and a 58% chance with a loss, per Aaron Schatz. For the Jaguars, those numbers are 57% and 19%, respectively.
If there’s a determining factor for these two on Sunday, it’ll be how Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence does against Los Angeles defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. The Chargers have been hesitant to blitz, ranking 28th in blitz rate at 19.9%, but also check in seventh in sack percentage at 8.1%.
L.A.’s pass rush could be a massive problem for Lawrence, who has struggled this season. The former Clemson star has thrown just 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions while completing 59.5% of his attempts. Against the blitz, he has a +4.1 EPA this season. Against three- and four-man rushes, that number plummets to -43.3.
If the Chargers can get to Lawrence without blitzing, the Jaguars will need to force turnovers and curtail their own. In its five wins this season, Jacksonville has a turnover differential of plus-12.
Verderame’s verdict: L.A. Chargers 23, Jacksonville 21
Spread: L.A. Rams -3
Key matchup: Rams’ offensive line vs. Seattle’s front four
Key stat: The Seahawks rank second in sacks and third in pressure rate
Date, Time, TV: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Seahawks rank 31st in blitz rate (19.1%) and yet have the third-best pressure rate (40.4%), something an immobile Matthew Stafford will need to deal with.
Stafford, 37, has rushed for minus-nine yards this season and is average in time to throw at 14th (2.75 seconds/dropback). Yet he’s been pressured at the fifth-lowest rate (27.8%), primarily because the offensive line is holding up while Sean Mcvay’s schemes are getting receivers open quickly.
Stafford should expect a four-man rush, something he’s been a mixed bag against compared to when blitzed. This year, he has 20 touchdown passes and zero interceptions when facing blitzes. He’s tossed five touchdowns and two interceptions against traditional rushes. Look for Seattle to try and win with Uchenna Nwosu, Byron Murphy Jr. and Leonard Williams, all of whom have at least five sacks.
Verderame’s verdict: L.A. Rams 30, Seattle 28
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix will have to step up for Denver to take down the Chiefs on Sunday. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
Spread: Kansas City -3.5
Key matchup: Bo Nix vs. Steve Spagnuolo
Key stat: The Chiefs rank fourth in EPA per pass on attempts under 10 air yards
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
This is the biggest regular-season game the Broncos have played since winning Super Bowl 50. And if they’re going to win it, they need Bo Nix to step up.
This season, Nix has thrived on the short passing game, but he’s struggled on intermediate and long throws. Per NFL Pro, here are his splits:
Against the Chiefs, those splits could be a problem. Kansas City’s pass defense ranks fourth in passing EPA against short throws (-0.13) and 13th on intermediate attempts (+0.37). However, those mid-level windows aren’t often open, as the Chiefs allow just 53.7 yards per game in that area, third-best.
This year, the Broncos have beaten the Texans, Eagles, Giants, Raiders, Jets, Cowboys, Titans and Bengals. Those teams rank first, third, seventh, 22nd, 23rd, 26th, 28th and 32nd, respectively, in EPA on short throws against. Against Philadelphia and New York, it took massive fourth-quarter comebacks. Against Houston, it took until the final play to beat Davis Mills.
If the Broncos are going to take down the nine-time division champs, they’ll need their best effort in this portion of the game.
Verderame’s verdict: Kansas City 23, Denver 19
Spread: Philadelphia -2.5
Key matchup: Detroit’s passing attack vs. Philadelphia’s secondary
Key stat: The Lions have the best EPA per pass in football
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
There might not be a bigger non-divisional game played this year than the one between the Eagles and Lions on Sunday night.
The winner has a terrific chance of being the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the loser has considerable work ahead. According to The Athletic’s playoff model, Philadelphia would have a 51% chance of earning the top seed with a win, and an 18% chance if it loses. Detroit’s chances are 21% and 2%, respectively.
Everything might come down to the Lions’ passing attack, which has yielded a league-high +0.12 EPA per attempt on the year. Jared Goff has found success throwing to receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta, who have combined for 1,182 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jameson Williams is also an elite burner, with eight receptions over 20 yards to lead the team.
That group will go against the Eagles’ defense, which held Packers quarterback Jordan Love to 39 first-half passing yards in a 10–7 win on Monday night. The unit ranks seventh in EPA per attempt at -0.12, led by shutdown corner Quinyon Mitchell and fellow second-year corner Cooper DeJean.
Verderame’s verdict: Philadelphia 24, Detroit 20
More NFL on Sports Illustrated
