A tropical low currently developing over the Timor Sea has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone later this week, with a possibility of landfall somewhere in the NT or WA.
The satellite images below show cloud circulating around the developing tropical low on Monday morning.
Image: Visible satellite images showing a developing tropical low over the Timor Sea on Monday morning.
This system has already caused heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western Top End in the last couple of days, including 228 mm in 24 hours at Charles Point near Darwin, which was its heaviest rain in a decade.
The low pressure system is in an environment that should help it gain strength over the next few days, with plenty of warm sea surface temperatures to provide energy and favourable atmospheric conditions to facilitate its intensification.
The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives the system a moderate risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from Wednesday and a high risk from Friday.
Image: Map showing a ‘high’ risk of a tropical cyclone near the NT’s Top End on Saturday, November 22, 2025. At this stage, the centre of the system is likely to be located somewhere inside the brow-shaded ellipsis at 11pm AEDT on Saturday. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
While there is some uncertainty regarding the prospective tropical cyclone’s future path, most forecast models suggest that it will move towards the northeast between Monday and Wednesday while gaining strength. Some models predict that it will then turn back towards the south or southwest from Thursday or Friday, potentially approaching the coast of the Top End, Tiwi Islands or Kimberley towards the end of the week or early next week.
At this early stage in the system’s development, it is difficult to predict exactly where it will move and how strong it will get. However, there is enough consensus between forecast models for residents in the Top End and Kimberley to pay close attention to the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories for the most up-to-date information over the coming week. Prepare now and make sure you have an emergency plan in place.
Is this early in the season for a tropical cyclone?
Australia’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from November to April. However, we don’t usually see many tropical cyclones near the Australian coastline this early in the season.
Only four tropical cyclones have made landfall on the Australian mainland in November:
- Tropical Cyclone Alessia (2013)
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Quenton (1983)
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Ines (1973)
- Tropical Cyclone 01U, also called the ‘Broome Cyclone’ (1910)
If this week’s system does become a tropical cyclone, it will be named Tropical Cyclone Fina.
