Wall Street update: US equities outlook as economic data resumes and NVIDIA earnings approach

US equities rebound amid mixed signals

The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from early losses on Friday as investors stepped in to take advantage of the recent dip in technology stocks. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers – which diminished expectations of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in December – weighed on the Dow Jones.

For the week, the Nasdaq fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 gained 0.32%, and the Dow Jones added 160 points (+0.34%).

Economic data flow resumes after shutdown

With the United States (US) government shutdown now ended, the flow of economic data will resume, updating the state of the US economy.

• The August – September releases, along with the advance third-quarter (Q3) 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) report, are expected soon. 
• The September employment report is due on 20 November and is expected to show a 40,000-job rise with unemployment remaining steady at 4.3%. The timing of October and November reports remains uncertain. 
• The consumer price index (CPI) and household employment survey for October are unlikely to be released because the data was not collected.

Earnings season beats expectations

In the stock space, the US September quarter earnings season is now roughly 92% complete, with 82% of companies beating expectations compared to a normal rate of 76%. Earnings growth is on track for 15.6% year-on-year (YoY), nearly double the consensus expectation at the start of the season.

The Q3 2025 earnings season continues this week, with reports scheduled from companies including Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and NVIDIA.

FOMC meeting minutes

Date: Thursday, 20 November at 6.00am AEDT

The Fed’s most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held on 28 – 29 October 2025, resulted in a widely anticipated 25 bp rate cut. This lowered the target range for the Federal funds rate to 3.75% – 4.00%.

This marked the second consecutive cut following a 25 bp reduction in September. The decision reflects the Fed’s ongoing efforts to support a labour market showing signs of softening while managing persistent inflationary pressures.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised a cautious approach, noting that ‘a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion’. This statement dampened expectations of another rate cut before year-end.

The minutes will be closely examined for deeper insights into the Fed’s deliberations and the level of consensus, or dissent, among FOMC members regarding the 25 bp cut. This comes after Powell’s tempered remarks suggested a growing sentiment to ‘wait a cycle’ before the next move and after a more hawkish tone from Fed speakers last week.

The US interest rate market starts the week pricing in a 44% chance of a 25 bp rate hike in December, down from 68% at the start of last week.

Fed funds rate chart