For the second time in as many games and the third time this season, the New York Knicks will take on the Miami Heat on Monday night.
New York lost the first meeting in Miami, but it bounced back in an NBA Cup clash on Friday night, winning without Jalen Brunson behind huge games from Karl-Anthony Towns and Landry Shamet.
Brunson is out for Monday’s game as he recovers from an ankle sprain that he suffered last week against Orlando.
Meanwhile on the Heat side, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are listed as out for this matchup. Oddsmakers have set the Heat as favorites, and these teams have played two fairly close games so far this season with the home team covering in both matchups.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Eastern Conference battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Knicks Injury Report
Heat Injury Report
Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Towns is a great prop target against the Miami Heat:
New York Knicks star Karl-Anthony Towns was extremely aggressive on Friday with Jalen Brunson out of the lineup and OG Anunoby going down with a hamstring injury early in the win over Miami.
The star big man shot 6-for-14 from 3-point range and attempted 26 shots overall on his way to a 39-point performance. Against a Miami team that ranks No. 1 in pace, KAT and the Knicks were able to score 140 points and get off a ton of shots on Friday night.
So, I’m buying Towns in the 3-point market on Monday, even though he’s gotten off to a bit of a slow start from deep, knocking down just 34.8 percent of his attempts this season. Towns still has four games where he’s cleared this prop, and he’s attempted 22 3-pointers in two games against Miami.
With Brunson and Anunoby out, Towns should have increased volume across the board on offense on Monday.
New York has yet to win a game on the road this season, but I think that could change on Monday night.
The Knicks are coming off a 140-point performance against Miami without Brunson and Anunoby, and they now rank third in the league in offensive rating.
While the Heat offense has put up the most points per game in the NBA, it hasn’t been as efficient as New York’s ranking 12th in offensive rating. Miami may have trouble putting up enough points against the Knicks with Herro and Adebayo still out, as it has dropped two of the five games that Bam has missed (both in a row) heading into this matchup.
The Knicks have a much deeper bench than they have in years past, and these teams are pretty equal when the stars are taken away, although Towns is the best player in this game.
I don’t mind taking a shot on the Knicks in what should be a track meet on Monday night.
Pick: Knicks Moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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