Perplexed by the World Cup play-offs ahead of this week’s draw? You’re probably not the only one.
Gone are the days when UEFA qualifying group winners reached the finals, and the second-placed teams played each other to join them.
For the second cycle in a row, countries that have finished outside the top two of their UEFA qualifying group but performed well in the 2024/25 Nations League tournament will get a second bite of the cherry – but they will claim two extra play-off spots compared to the 2022 World Cup.
It’s a complicated system which keeps outcomes in limbo longer than ever, but here’s a handy guide to break things down…
Who qualifies for the World Cup play-offs?
For the first time, 16 European teams will play at the World Cup owing to the 50 per cent increase in the size of the 2026 tournament. Of those, 12 places are reserved for UEFA qualifying group winners, with the other four coming via the play-offs.
The 12 group runners-up will be joined by four teams who finished outside the top two of their respective qualifying groups, who were the ‘best performers’ in the 2024/25 Nations League.
Here are the permutations from each of the 12 groups:
- Group A: Germany have qualified, with Slovakia taking the second-place play-off spot
- Group B: Switzerland and Kosovo will both either finish first or second, with Sweden guaranteed a play-off spot through the Nations League route
- Group C: Denmark or Scotland will both either finish first or second
- Group D: France have qualified, with Ukraine taking the second-place play-off spot
- Group E: Spain or Turkey will both either finish first or second
- Group F: Portugal have qualified, with the Republic of Ireland taking the second-place play-off spot
- Group G: Netherlands have qualified, with Poland taking the second-place play-off spot
- Group H: Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina will both either finish first or second, with Romania guaranteed a play-off spot through the Nations League route
- Group I: Norway have qualified, with Italy taking the second-place play-off spot
- Group J: Belgium will finish either first or second, though Wales or North Macedonia could leapfrog them into first place, with the other guaranteed a play-off spot through the Nations League route
- Group K: England have qualified, with Albania taking the second-place play-off spot
- Group L: Croatia have qualified, with Czech Republic taking the second-place play-off spot
Will the home nations be involved?
Yes! As you will note above, Northern Ireland are already guaranteed a spot owing to their Nations League performance, even though they will not finish in the top two of their qualifying group.
Northern Ireland’s defeat to Slovakia ended their automatic hopes – but they will compete in the play-offs in March
England have already qualified for the finals and both Wales and Scotland could still do the same, but both are guaranteed of at least a play-off spot.
Scotland will finish either first or second in their qualifying group, while Wales could end up anywhere from first to third in Group J – but their 2024/25 Nations League performance will see them into the play-offs if they don’t finish in the top two. More on that below.
How does UEFA decide Nations League performance?
UEFA ranks Nations League teams first by the number of points won by group winners, from the top tier down to the fourth. More often than not, this means the four additional play-off spots will be filled by four of the 14 Nations League group winners.
But if at least 11 of those have finished in the top two of their World Cup qualifying groups, there’s space left over.
The rest of the Nations League is also ranked by points won by division, first across League A and then down the tiers.
We already know three of the teams who have qualified for the play-offs via this route – Northern Ireland, Romania and Sweden.
The fourth spot will be taken by either North Macedonia or Wales, who play one another in their final Group J qualifying game on Tuesday.
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Wales head coach Craig Bellamy says he is delighted that their final World Cup qualifier has something riding on it – with a potential automatic qualification spot for next summer’s finals on the line.
What’s the format of the play-offs?
The World Cup play-offs will take place in March 2026 and will consist of four ‘paths’, one for each vacant spot at the finals.
Every path will include a team from each of four seeding pots, with Pots 1-3 decided by FIFA World Rankings, while Pot 4 consists of the four countries qualifying through their Nations League performance.
The format will then proceed as follows in the one-legged semi-finals, hosted by the higher-ranking pot side:
- Pot 1 vs Pot 4
- Pot 2 vs Pot 3
The winner of the Pot 1 vs Pot 4 semi-final hosts the one-off final for a spot against the winner of the Pot 2 vs Pot 3 semi-final for a place in the USA, Canada and Mexico World Cup.
When is the draw for the play-offs?
The draw will take place on Thursday at 12pm from FIFA’s home in Zurich, Switzerland.
